Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 280928
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 AM CST TUE MAR 28 2006
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NE NM/TX AND OK PANHANDLES/SW
   KS/SE CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS WITHIN
   LARGE CYCLONE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
   ONSHORE IN WAVES...WITH THE MAIN LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOCUSED ACROSS
   THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST THROUGH TUE EVENING. SFC COLD
   FRONT WHICH MOVED SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/SW TX ON MONDAY WILL
   BEGIN TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT...WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE
   HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NE NM/TX AND OK PANHANDLES/SW
   KS/SE CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   STRONG SLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS OF
   NM...THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES...AND SW KS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
   ASSOCIATED WITH WRN STORM CONVEYOR WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA
   TODAY...WHICH MAY LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS ARE STILL
   EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S SOUTH. LIMITING FACTOR
   WILL BE MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
   MOISTENED OVER THE LAST 24-36 HOURS. RH VALUES WERE AS LOW AS 20
   PERCENT ACROSS THIS AREA YESTERDAY...AND TODAY WILL BE WINDIER AND
   WARMER. EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND NO
   SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED BEFORE TOMORROW EVENING AT THE
   EARLIEST. 
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...ACROSS SERN NM AND FAR W TX...BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH GIVEN SELY UPSLOPE FLOW.
   QPF GUIDANCE FROM SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEMS
   OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF PCPN OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR
   WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z...WHEN STRONGER LARGE SCALE
   FORCING ARRIVES.
   
   ...ERN CAROLINAS/VA...
   SFC WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
   STRONG TODAY /15-25 MPH/ WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
   AIRMASS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IS RATHER
   DRY...AND MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35-40
   PERCENT. GIVEN THE HIGH FIRE DANGER CLASS OBSERVATIONS...THE
   INCREASE IN WIND AND TEMP MAY INCREASE FIRE CONCERNS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 03/28/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 280930
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 AM CST TUE MAR 28 2006
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NM/TX AND OK PANHANDLES/SW KS/SE
   CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH W COAST STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
   TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. MID
   LEVEL WINDS ACROSS AZ/NM WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY TO AROUND 65 KT
   BY LATE AFTN/EVENING. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD ACROSS
   THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES AND INTO SW KS BY LATE AFTN...WITH WARM AND
   DRY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NM/SE CO INTO SW KS AND THE PANHANDLES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NM/TX AND OK PANHANDLES/SW KS/SE
   CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT/LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP ON WED AS STRONG STORM
   SYSTEM NOW OFF THE WEST COAST APPROACHES THE AREA. SFC WINDS OF
   20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40+ MPH. IN ADDITION..WITH
   TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH 70S...MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 20
   PERCENT ARE LIKELY. ONE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HOW MUCH PCPN MAY FALL ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SUGGEST THE
   TRANSPECOS REGION THROUGH NCNTRL TX/OK WILL RECEIVE SOME WETTING
   RAINS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
   FIRE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
   NERN NM/SE CO INTO KS. OUTLOOK AREA MAY BE ADJUSTED IN THE NEXT
   FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE UNCERTAINTIES.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 03/28/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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