Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 310900
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE E
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL HELP PRODUCE RAINFALL FROM THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE HIGH PLAINS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS.
...NEW ENGLAND...
INCREASING WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RH VALUES WILL LEAD TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR MASS
IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH MINOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING EXPECTED
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY...AND
WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
30S...MIN RH VALUES WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW AND RANGE FROM 20 TO 30
PERCENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING GREAT
LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HOWEVER...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST WITH RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FROM
15 TO 20 MPH.
...PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND OK/TX PANHANDLES...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MIN RH VALUES
FROM 12 TO 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FROM 10 TO 15 MPH
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
..GRAMS.. 03/31/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 311009
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0409 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM/WRN PANHANDLES OF TX AND
OK/EXTREME SERN CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST AND INDUCE A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE LEE OF THE CO ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. DEEP
SW FLOW WILL CREATE WARM AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO THE S OF THIS
LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN NM/WRN PANHANDLES OF TX AND
OK/EXTREME SERN CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH / WARM TEMPERATURES / STRONG WINDS /
LONG-TERM DROUGHT
A NORTH-TO-SOUTH AXIS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM EXTREME SERN CO AND ERN
NM INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES OF TX AND OK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS E-CNTRL CO AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE WRN CONUS. A MODERATE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER ERN NM BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS...THIS WILL ALLOW THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH APPEAR LIKELY WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH.
EARLY MORNING RH VALUES WILL BE MOIST AS GENERALLY S/SE SURFACE FLOW
PREVAILS FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EWD...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S AND MIN RH VALUES WILL REACH 10 TO 20
PERCENT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF
THE DRYLINE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG DURING THE EVENING
SUPPORTING POOR RH RECOVERY INITIALLY. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
SLOWLY ENE OVERNIGHT AND A COLD FRONT DROPS SE...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WNW.
..GRAMS.. 03/31/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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