Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 030912
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0412 AM CDT MON APR 03 2006
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
   APPALACHIANS TODAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
   COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS WRN NY/PA INTO VA AND THE CAROLINAS.
   BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO INFILTRATE INTO MUCH OF
   THE MS VALLEY AND SRN STATES.
   
   MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
   PRECIPITATION TO THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES WITH TROUGH AXIS JUST
   STILL OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD TUE MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
   TROUGH...SWLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DESERT SW BUT
   SPEEDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG TODAY...ALTHOUGH RH WILL REMAIN LOW.
   
   ...SRN MS/AL/GA AND NRN FL...
   WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W AND NW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO
   THE AREA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...WHILE
   TEMPERATURES WARM AND RH DROPS TO 35-40 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH RH LEVELS
   WILL BE MARGINALLY LOW...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN OVER
   THE PAST MONTH ALONG THE GULF COAST AND OVER FL. THUS...WITH WARM
   AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WIND SPEEDS...A MARGINAL FIRE
   THREAT WILL EXIST.
   
   ...CENTRAL AND WRN TX...
   MARGINALLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY BEHIND A COLD
   FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
   NE AT AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH MIN RH DROPPING TO NEAR 25 PERCENT.
   ALTHOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST...SOME RECENT RAINFALL AS WELL
   AS ONLY MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL HELP MITIGATE FIRE THREAT
   TODAY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/03/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 030936
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0436 AM CDT MON APR 03 2006
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH TROUGHS
   ALONG THE W AND E COASTS. STRONG SWLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE ACROSS
   THE DESERT SW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER.
   FARTHER E...SLY FLOW WILL BE STRONG THROUGH THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN
   NRN HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO CAUSE LOW RH VALUES
   OVER THE SERN STATES...INCREASING THREAT OF FIRES THERE AS WELL.
   
   ...ERN AZ INTO NM...
   WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH
   SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH OUT OF THE SW...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
   CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARD TO THE HUMIDITY FORECAST
   FOR DAY 2 GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER...BUT VALUES OF 15-20
   PERCENT APPEAR LIKELY. THUS...A CRITICAL AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT
   THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE IN NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IF HUMIDITY IS LOWER
   THAN EXPECTED.
   
   ...SRN GA/AL AND NRN FL...
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUE...WHICH WILL ALLOW RH
   LEVELS TO LOWER INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME...IT
   APPEARS SUSTAINED NWLY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 10 MPH. GIVEN
   INCREASING KBDI VALUES AND RECENT DROUGHT...THIS AREA COULD BE
   UPGRADED TO CRITICAL IN NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK ESPECIALLY IF WINDS ARE
   STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
   
   ...ERN CO / WRN KS / WRN TX PANHANDLE...
   IT WILL BECOME WINDY AT TIMES TUE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT TIGHTENS. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FROM GUIDANCE VARY...BUT
   SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ERN CO ALONG
   WITH MIN RH NEAR 20 PERCENT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FARTHER E INTO KS
   AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...BUT RH LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AND ABOVE
   CRITICAL LEVELS. STILL...STRONG WINDS NEAR 25 MPH FROM WRN KS INTO
   WRN OK AND NWRN TX WILL INCREASE FIRE THREAT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
   DAY.
   
   ...VA / NC...
   STRONG WLY WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER
   AIR TUE. MIN RH LEVELS NEAR 20 PERCENT APPEAR LIKELY...ALONG WITH
   SUSTAINED WLY SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS KIND OF
   WIND AND RH COMBINATION USUALLY WOULD WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA GIVEN
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS...BUT ACTUAL FIRE THREAT WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON
   HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/03/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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