Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 060811
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL OK
   AND PORTIONS OF WRN TX/ERN NM...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SRN PLAINS
   INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SRN KS...ERN OK...SERN CO AND SWRN TX/SERN
   NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
   PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
   OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEB. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS
   COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW RH
   READINGS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE
   PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS REGION. WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVERAGE
   OVER 35 MPH...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
   OVER PORTIONS OF OK...ERN NM AND WRN TX. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
   NATION...UPPER RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
   SERN STATES/MID ATLANTIC AND SWRN STATES/GREAT BASIN. DESPITE LOW RH
   READINGS IN THE SERN STATES...LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL OK
   AND PORTIONS OF WRN TX/ERN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WLY WINDS FROM 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
   TO 60 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 8-20 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   BEHIND AN ADVANCING DRYLINE...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED FROM ERN OK INTO
   CENTRAL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS WILL OCCUR IN THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...ALONG AND JUST
   NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE MID
   LEVELS IN THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
   FROM THE SFC UP TO 500 MB /15000 FT/...AIDING IN MOMENTUM TRANSFER
   OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A
   STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE
   TO A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER NEB...WILL LEAD TO VERY STRONG SUSTAINED
   WINDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. DURING THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 8-15 PERCENT OVER ERN NM/WRN
   TX AND BETWEEN 10-20 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL AND WRN OK...AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S/80S AND DEWPTS FALL INTO THE
   TEENS/20S. THIS COMBINATION OF LOW RH READINGS WITH THE STRONG WINDS
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER SITUATION IN THE
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA. COUPLED WITH A CONTINUED DROUGHT IN
   THE REGION AND VERY DRY SURFACE FUELS...ANY FIRES THAT MIGHT DEVELOP
   WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER AREA INCLUDING THE REMAINDER OF ERN NM/WRN
   TX...WRN/CENTRAL OK AND PORTIONS OF NCENTRAL TX...ERN OK...SRN
   KS/SERN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH...WITH GUSTS
   OVER 40 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 8-20 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA IS A CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER AREA...WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY
   STRONG /SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH/...BUT NOT QUITE
   AS INTENSE AS THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...DUE TO FARTHER PROXIMITY
   FROM THE MID LEVEL JET. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE EASTERN PORTION
   OF THE OUTLOOK AREA /ERN OK SWD INTO NCENTRAL TX/ WILL BE SOMEWHAT
   HIGHER THAN FARTHER WEST...AND WILL NOT FALL TO CRITICAL LEVELS
   UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER THE
   REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE MIN RH READINGS FROM 8-20 PERCENT
   /LOWEST OVER SWRN TX AND SERN NM/ THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. IN
   ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS/LOW RH READINGS...ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
   TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NRN TX PANHANDLE/OK PANHANDLE AND FAR NRN
   OK/SRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   LOW RH READINGS /20-30 PERCENT/ WILL ACCOMPANY AN AREA OF SURFACE
   HIGH PRESSURE AREA  THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
   RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN THE 5-10 MPH WILL LIMIT A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/06/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 060812
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
   EWD WHILE PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING SEWD FROM CANADA.
   THIS PHASING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
   BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION BY THE END OF DAY
   TWO. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONT OVER MUCH OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
   ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
   PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS BEHIND A DRYLINE AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - PORTIONS OF SERN NM...SRN/ERN
   OK...MUCH OF NRN/WRN AND CENTRAL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WNWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
   OVER 40 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-25 PERCENT
   
   AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SEWD FROM KS TO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY TOMORROW. ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EWD
   INTO WRN AR AND ERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST OF THE
   DRYLINE...LOW RH READINGS FROM 10-25 PERCENT /HIGHEST FARTHER EAST/
   WILL DEVELOP. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH
   OK/TX PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING LEADING TO A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW
   AND INCREASE IN WINDS SPEEDS TO OVER 35 MPH AND HIGHER RH READINGS.
   FARTHER SOUTH...WLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE
   AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH THE LOW RH
   READINGS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THE
   STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS FROM SWRN
   TX INTO CENTRAL TX WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST OVER TO 40 MPH.
   
   ...REST OF OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE/ERN NM...
   LOW RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT WILL BE LIKELY FOR A FEW HR
   PERIOD DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING OVER MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL OK AHEAD
   OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. GIVEN EXPECTED COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
   THE 50S/60S WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MIN RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED
   TO RISE TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE HIGHER RH
   READINGS...SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS FROM 20-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO VERY
   HIGH FIRE DANGER /ALBEIT NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS/ AND HAMPER
   POTENTIAL FIRE CONTAINMENT EFFORTS.
   
   ...WRN AR AND SWRN MO...
   SWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH AND LOW RH READINGS FROM 20-30 PERCENT ARE
   EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A DRYLINE. EXPECTED WETTING RAINS ON DAY ONE
   WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON DAY TWO.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/06/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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