Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
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FNUS21 KWNS 060811
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL OK
AND PORTIONS OF WRN TX/ERN NM...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SRN PLAINS
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SRN KS...ERN OK...SERN CO AND SWRN TX/SERN
NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEB. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW RH
READINGS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS REGION. WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVERAGE
OVER 35 MPH...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
OVER PORTIONS OF OK...ERN NM AND WRN TX. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
NATION...UPPER RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
SERN STATES/MID ATLANTIC AND SWRN STATES/GREAT BASIN. DESPITE LOW RH
READINGS IN THE SERN STATES...LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL OK
AND PORTIONS OF WRN TX/ERN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WLY WINDS FROM 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 8-20 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
BEHIND AN ADVANCING DRYLINE...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED FROM ERN OK INTO
CENTRAL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS WILL OCCUR IN THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE MID
LEVELS IN THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
FROM THE SFC UP TO 500 MB /15000 FT/...AIDING IN MOMENTUM TRANSFER
OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER NEB...WILL LEAD TO VERY STRONG SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 8-15 PERCENT OVER ERN NM/WRN
TX AND BETWEEN 10-20 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL AND WRN OK...AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S/80S AND DEWPTS FALL INTO THE
TEENS/20S. THIS COMBINATION OF LOW RH READINGS WITH THE STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER SITUATION IN THE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA. COUPLED WITH A CONTINUED DROUGHT IN
THE REGION AND VERY DRY SURFACE FUELS...ANY FIRES THAT MIGHT DEVELOP
WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER AREA INCLUDING THE REMAINDER OF ERN NM/WRN
TX...WRN/CENTRAL OK AND PORTIONS OF NCENTRAL TX...ERN OK...SRN
KS/SERN CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH...WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 8-20 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA IS A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER AREA...WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY
STRONG /SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH/...BUT NOT QUITE
AS INTENSE AS THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...DUE TO FARTHER PROXIMITY
FROM THE MID LEVEL JET. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA /ERN OK SWD INTO NCENTRAL TX/ WILL BE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER THAN FARTHER WEST...AND WILL NOT FALL TO CRITICAL LEVELS
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE MIN RH READINGS FROM 8-20 PERCENT
/LOWEST OVER SWRN TX AND SERN NM/ THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS/LOW RH READINGS...ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NRN TX PANHANDLE/OK PANHANDLE AND FAR NRN
OK/SRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
...SERN STATES...
LOW RH READINGS /20-30 PERCENT/ WILL ACCOMPANY AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN THE 5-10 MPH WILL LIMIT A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
..CROSBIE.. 04/06/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 060812
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EWD WHILE PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING SEWD FROM CANADA.
THIS PHASING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION BY THE END OF DAY
TWO. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT OVER MUCH OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS BEHIND A DRYLINE AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - PORTIONS OF SERN NM...SRN/ERN
OK...MUCH OF NRN/WRN AND CENTRAL TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WNWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-25 PERCENT
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SEWD FROM KS TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TOMORROW. ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EWD
INTO WRN AR AND ERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...LOW RH READINGS FROM 10-25 PERCENT /HIGHEST FARTHER EAST/
WILL DEVELOP. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH
OK/TX PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING LEADING TO A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW
AND INCREASE IN WINDS SPEEDS TO OVER 35 MPH AND HIGHER RH READINGS.
FARTHER SOUTH...WLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH THE LOW RH
READINGS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS FROM SWRN
TX INTO CENTRAL TX WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST OVER TO 40 MPH.
...REST OF OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE/ERN NM...
LOW RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT WILL BE LIKELY FOR A FEW HR
PERIOD DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING OVER MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL OK AHEAD
OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. GIVEN EXPECTED COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S/60S WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MIN RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE HIGHER RH
READINGS...SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS FROM 20-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER /ALBEIT NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS/ AND HAMPER
POTENTIAL FIRE CONTAINMENT EFFORTS.
...WRN AR AND SWRN MO...
SWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH AND LOW RH READINGS FROM 20-30 PERCENT ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A DRYLINE. EXPECTED WETTING RAINS ON DAY ONE
WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON DAY TWO.
..CROSBIE.. 04/06/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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