Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150951
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 AM CDT SAT APR 15 2006
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR ERN NM/FAR SERN
   CO/SWRN KS/WRN OK/NWRN TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM/SERN CO/WRN AND CNTRL
   KS/CNTRL OK/N-CNTRL AND FAR WEST TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SW MN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VIGOROUS UPR LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL LIFT NEWD
   INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. AN 80-90 MPH MID-LEVEL JET
   MAX WILL SHIFT NE FROM ERN NM INTO S-CNTRL KS/WRN OK THIS AFTN. A
   SFC LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AHEAD OF THIS SPEED MAX...FROM ERN CO
   INTO CNTRL NEB BY THIS EVENING. THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EWD INTO
   CNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK...WITH THE MOST EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FAR ERN NM/FAR SERN
   CO/SWRN KS/WRN OK/NWRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH / LONG-TERM
   DROUGHT
   
   VERY STRONG W/SW WINDS AND VERY LOW RH WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND
   PROFILERS OVER CNTRL/ERN NM ALREADY INDICATE 50 MPH WINDS AROUND
   3000 FEET AGL. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER THIS
   MORNING...THESE WINDS WILL MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND CREATE
   SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. DEW
   POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EWD INTO CNTRL KS
   AND CNTRL OK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO
   THE 80S AND 90S...RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT
   RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
   THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING BEFORE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH TO BELOW 20
   MPH OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - ERN NM/SERN CO/WRN AND CNTRL
   KS/CNTRL OK/N-CNTRL AND FAR WEST TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH
   WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT
   WILL PUSH THROUGH ERN CO BEHIND THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
   LIFTING INTO NEB THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES IN ERN CO WILL BE COOLER
   THAN FRIDAY /IN THE 60S AND 70S/. DOWNSLOPE WLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MIXING TO ALLOW WINDS TO
   REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. RH VALUES WILL DIP
   INTO THE TEENS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN
   THE 80S AND 90S COMBINED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
   DRYLINE...WILL PROMOTE RH VALUES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT FROM FAR W TX TO
   15 TO 20 PERCENT IN CNTRL OK.
   
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE DURING THE EVENING
   AS THE UPPER MIDWEST LOW LIFTS FURTHER NEWD. W/NW WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH
   WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 3 - PORTIONS OF SW MN...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / SHORT-TERM DRYNESS
   
   A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CO/NEB LOW
   WILL COMBINE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES/LOW RH AND RECENT DRYNESS TO
   PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
   AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE NE OF THE
   BUFFALO RIDGE ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY. HERE AN INCREASING PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON. AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE
   30S THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
   MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 15 TO 20
   PERCENT. THE CRITICAL THREAT WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED...AS MOISTURE
   SURGES NWD THIS EVENING AND RH VALUES SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/15/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 151016
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 AM CDT SAT APR 15 2006
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
   ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY
   MORNING. IN RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE E/SEWD
   FROM IA TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE
   OF THIS ERN CONUS SYSTEM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
   SUBSTANTIALLY LIGHTER WINDS TO MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.
   FURTHER W...ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE W
   COAST.
   
   ...ERN NM/SERN CO/SW KS/TX AND OK PANHANDLES...
   WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. HOWEVER
   WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN ON SATURDAY. A BUILDING HIGH
   PRESSURE RIDGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK
   LEE-TROUGHING BY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   BELOW 20 MPH TO PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/15/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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