Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 160927
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0427 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AND
   BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY
   MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE E/SEWD FROM SRN IA
   TOWARDS THE OH RIVER VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ERN CONUS
   SYSTEM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUBSTANTIALLY LIGHTER
   WINDS TO MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. FURTHER WEST...AN
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE W COAST.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SERN KS INTO EXTREME NERN OK...
   A NARROW NW TO SE AXIS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH COMBINED
   WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND RH VALUES AROUND 20
   PERCENT WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ENHANCED W/NW WINDS
   AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A
   PACIFIC COOL FRONT/DRY LINE THROUGH AROUND NOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
   A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
   IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
   OVER SRN IA ALONG WITH INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE LEE OF THE
   ROCKIES. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DIMINISHING OF WINDS BELOW 20 MPH
   DURING MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 
   
   ...COASTAL PLAINS OF SC INTO ERN GA...
   SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...HOWEVER
   WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER. NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HEAT WILL BE
   IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE
   80S TO LOWER 90S. UPSTREAM MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER COMPARED TO
   YESTERDAY MORNING ATTM. DEW POINTS SHOULD STILL MIX OUT INTO THE
   UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...PROVIDING RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30
   PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT
   WEAKER COMPARED TO SATURDAY...THUS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS JUST BELOW 20 MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/16/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 161022
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN AZ/NRN NM/SERN
   CO/SWRN KS/TX AND OK PANHANDLES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL MOVE EWD AND INDUCE LOW
   PRESSURE OVER NERN CO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG MID-LEVEL WIND
   SPEED MAX WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE SRN GREAT
   BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
   INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SPEED MAX AND FROM AN INCREASING SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING NERN CO LOW.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - PORTIONS OF ERN AZ/NRN NM/SERN
   CO/SWRN KS/TX AND OK PANHANDLES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   STRONG W WINDS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR MASS
   IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND
   THIS WILL BE FURTHER STRENGTHENED BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND
   STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
   80S TO LOWER 90S...RH VALUES OF 5 TO 12 PERCENT ARE FORECAST ON
   MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS E OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS
   WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 MPH. FURTHER W...WIND SPEEDS WILL
   LIKELY BE STRONGER OWING TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MID-LEVEL JET MAX.
   SUSTAINED WINDS FROM ERN AZ INTO WRN NM SHOULD REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
   WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THIS
   REGION /MAINLY IN THE 70S/ AS A COLD FRONT DIVES SEWD. MIN RH VALUES
   SHOULD STILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...SRN NM INTO PORTIONS OF NW TX...
   FURTHER S OF THE CRITICAL AREA...HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
   LIKELY OCCUR...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF INCREASING W/SW
   WINDS PRECLUDES A CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE ATTM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
   REACH THE 90S TO AROUND 100 MONDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING MIN RH
   VALUES FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS
   SHOULD OCCUR FURTHER N AND SUSTAINED WINDS MAY NOT BE ABOVE 20 MPH
   FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...EXCEPT OVER THE GUADALUPE MTNS.
   THIS AREA MAY BE UPGRADED IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK IF WIND SPEEDS ABOVE
   20 MPH LOOK TO BE MORE CERTAIN.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/16/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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