Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 170955
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0455 AM CDT MON APR 17 2006
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CO AND NM/NERN AZ/SERN
   UT/FAR SERN WY/FAR WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM ERN WA TO NRN NV WILL MOVE EWD AND INDUCE
   LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN WY THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG MID-LEVEL WIND
   SPEED MAX IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE FOUR
   CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. DRY W/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT
   AHEAD OF THIS SPEED MAX. FURTHER EAST...A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
   GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO WY LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS ACROSS
   THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. IN THE MID-ATLANTIC...A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF CO AND NM/NERN AZ/SERN
   UT/FAR SERN WY/FAR WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
   
   STRONG W/SW WINDS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE NERN PORTION
   OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR HERE OWING TO A
   STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX PUSHING EWD. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   STEEPEN LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...MIXING OF THE
   STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL OCCUR. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
   APPEAR LIKELY WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH...AS EVIDENCED BY
   RECENT SURFACE OBS ACROSS SRN NV INTO SWRN UT. AS TEMPERATURES WARM
   INTO THE 60S AND 70S IN LOWER ELEVATION AREAS...MIN RH VALUES WILL
   REACH 10 TO 15 PERCENT.
   
   IN THE SWRN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MORE
   MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR
   MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG WITH LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
   WITH DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S AND
   90S WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   SHOULD REACH CRITICAL VALUES AROUND 20 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   THIS EVENING. POOR RH RECOVERY IS ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
   DOWNSLOPE W WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH CONTINUE.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL MN...
   A NNW TO SSE AXIS OF MARGINALLY LOW RH COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING
   WINDS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
   LOW OVER WY...SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH
   THIS AFTERNOON. A FETCH OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM NRN WI/ERN MN WILL
   SUPPORT DEW POINTS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. WITH TEMPERATURES
   WARMING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...MIN RH VALUES WILL REACH 20
   TO 25 PERCENT.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF NERN AND E-CNTRL FL...
   INCREASING WINDS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
   CAROLINAS ALONG WITH A WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO
   BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED W/SW WINDS WILL
   INCREASE TODAY TO NEAR 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
   LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS HAS MOISTENED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...A
   POCKET OF DEW POINTS FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES SHOULD REMAIN IN INTERIOR
   SECTIONS OF CNTRL FL. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S...MIN
   RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 35 PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/17/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 171027
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0527 AM CDT MON APR 17 2006
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN KS/NWRN OK/FAR SERN
   CO/PORTIONS OF OK AND TX PANHANDLES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON
   TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN
   PLAINS...BRINGING GUSTY N/NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE. ELSEWHERE...HIGH
   PRESSURE RIDGING IN BOTH THE WRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL
   PRODUCE GENERALLY MODEST WIND SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - WRN KS/NWRN OK/FAR SERN
   CO/PORTIONS OF OK AND TX PANHANDLES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   STRONG POST-FRONTAL N/NW WINDS COMBINED WITH A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD
   PRODUCE A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM N TO S ON
   TUESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE TIED TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY
   AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN CONUS. AN AXIS OF ENHANCED
   LOW-LEVEL N/NW WINDS IS FORECAST ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
   WHICH WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20
   TO 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. ALTHOUGH
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS /FROM THE 60S
   NORTH TO 80S SOUTH/ ...MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT APPEAR LIKELY
   GIVEN A VERY DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
   
   ...ERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF NW TX...
   POOR RH RECOVERY FROM DAY 1 ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS DURING PASSAGE OF
   A COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS. THE EFFECTS OF A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
   PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT FROM
   LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE AXIS OF STRONGEST
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR FURTHER N/NE OF THIS AREA...SUSTAINED
   SPEEDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY OCCUR IN THE LATE
   MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY DURING
   THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INCREASES ALONG THE LEE OF
   THE ROCKIES.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/17/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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