Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 220854
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 AM CDT SAT APR 22 2006
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE UT/SW CO/NRN AZ/NWRN NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WEST COAST STORM SYSTEM WILL MAKE SOME EWD PROGRESS INLAND
   TODAY...THOUGH MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER
   SCNTRL CA THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATELY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
   INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY AT LOWER
   ELEVATIONS. FARTHER EAST...LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH STRONG SLY FLOW.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SE UT/SW CO/NRN AZ/NWRN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED 20-35 MPH WINDS/MINIMUM RH VALUES
   BELOW 15 PERCENT/DRY FUELS
   
   STRONG SWLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20-35 MPH BY AFTN AS
   MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EMERGES FROM THE BASE OF APPROACHING UPPER
   TROUGH. HIGHER GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THE
   AIRMASS REMAINS CRITICALLY DRY WITH EARLY MORNING DEWPOINT
   OBSERVATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
   5-10 PERCENT...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S/70S. TEMPS ACROSS
   CNTRL AND SRN AZ WILL BE EVEN WARMER IN THE 80S/90S. LATEST OBSERVED
   FIRE DANGER INDICES WERE HIGH/VERY HIGH AS LONG TERM DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS PERSIST. HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE ALSO LIKELY AROUND THE FOUR
   CORNERS REGION. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
   MIXING...SO VIRGA AND ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY...BUT
   UPPER TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE
   STRONGEST WINDS AT MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WRN/NRN AZ. RH
   VALUES WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS OF NM
   WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 04/22/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 220901
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 AM CDT SAT APR 22 2006
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ/NM/SRN CO/W TX/OK
   PANHANDLE...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW NOW OFF CA COAST WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AND EVOLVE INTO
   MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. FAVORABLE CONFIGURATION OF TROUGH WILL ALLOW
   50-60 KT MID LEVEL FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS AZ/NM ON SUNDAY. LEE SIDE
   LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER SERN CO/SW KS WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS
   THE TX PANHANDLE TO FAR WRN OK.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN AZ/NM/SRN CO/W TX/OK
   PANHANDLE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SFC WINDS 20-30 MPH/LOW RH VALUES BELOW
   15-20 PERCENT/LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   ONCE AGAIN STRONG S/SWLY SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF ERN
   AZ/NM ON SUNDAY...WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS LIKELY. MINIMUM RH VALUES
   WILL FALL BELOW 10-15 PERCENT ACROSS ERN AZ AND NM WITH SLIGHTLY
   HIGHER HUMIDITY FARTHER EAST. THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL
   LIKELY BE ACROSS ERN NM AND THE TX HIGH PLAINS WHERE HIGH TEMPS WILL
   BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT. WHILE SOME
   LOCATIONS IN THE TX SOUTH PLAINS RECEIVED RAIN RECENTLY...LITTLE OR
   NO RAIN WAS OBSERVED NORTH OF I-40 OR WEST OF I-27. 
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S
   ACROSS WRN/CNTRL OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WITH WINDS AT LEAST
   15-25 MPH. THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THESE ERN AREAS WILL BE
   MITIGATED ONLY BY THE HIGHER HUMIDITY. TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE CRITICAL AREA DUE TO A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. ANY
   SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO KS/MO INVOF OF A
   STATIONARY FRONT.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 04/22/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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