Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 040938
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0438 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2006
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN CA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO
AZ BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST OF AZ AND NM. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NRN GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SERN CANADA. GENERALLY WEAK AND
ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN CONUS.
...NWRN AZ...
WARM TEMPERATURES...MODERATE WINDS AND CONTINUED LONG-TERM DRYNESS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SRN CA DRAWS CLOSER...MID-LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 MPH. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS
INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
SRN NV AND CONSEQUENTLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SUSTAINED SW WINDS OF APPROACHING 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS ALSO INCREASED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY. WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AS
WELL...MIN RH VALUES SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S...RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 15
PERCENT.
...SERN AZ/SWRN NM...
WARM TEMPERATURES...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DRY AIR
MASS WILL PRODUCE CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S...MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL BETWEEN 5 TO 10 PERCENT. SWLY
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SRN CA APPROACHES. MODEL FORECASTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
..GRAMS.. 05/04/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 040946
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2006
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN AZ/FAR SRN NM/EXTREME FAR
W TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR AZ WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD
REACHING NM BY EARLY SATURDAY. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL EJECT FROM
THE BASE OF TROUGH NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AREA ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY MOVES EWD TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS FL.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FAR SERN AZ/FAR SRN NM/EXTREME FAR
W TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
A ZONE OF ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS SHOULD PRODUCE CRITICAL CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL MOVE
ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER. AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SOME MIXING OF THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE CHIRICAHUA AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH APPEAR LIKELY WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND POSSIBLE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES STILL APPEAR LIKELY
GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE. AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY WARM INTO THE 80S...RH VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 PERCENT.
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL SUPPORT POOR RH RECOVERY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...INTERIOR FL PENINSULA...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN CRITICALLY LOW...FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
E ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WSW WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW 20 MPH.
..GRAMS.. 05/04/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...