Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 040938
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0438 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2006
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN CA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO
   AZ BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
   SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST OF AZ AND NM. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
   NRN GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SERN CANADA. GENERALLY WEAK AND
   ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN CONUS.
   
   ...NWRN AZ...
   WARM TEMPERATURES...MODERATE WINDS AND CONTINUED LONG-TERM DRYNESS
   MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SRN CA DRAWS CLOSER...MID-LEVEL WIND
   SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 MPH. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS
   INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
   SRN NV AND CONSEQUENTLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LIKELY
   RESULT IN SUSTAINED SW WINDS OF APPROACHING 20 MPH THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   HAS ALSO INCREASED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER
   VALLEY. WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AS
   WELL...MIN RH VALUES SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S...RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 15
   PERCENT.
   
   ...SERN AZ/SWRN NM...
   WARM TEMPERATURES...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DRY AIR
   MASS WILL PRODUCE CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN THIS
   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
   THRESHOLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S TO
   LOWER 90S...MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL BETWEEN 5 TO 10 PERCENT. SWLY
   WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
   SRN CA APPROACHES. MODEL FORECASTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
   WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/04/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 040946
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2006
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN AZ/FAR SRN NM/EXTREME FAR
   W TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR AZ WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD
   REACHING NM BY EARLY SATURDAY. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL EJECT FROM
   THE BASE OF TROUGH NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
   AREA ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY MOVES EWD TOWARD THE
   CAROLINAS...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS FL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FAR SERN AZ/FAR SRN NM/EXTREME FAR
   W TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   A ZONE OF ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
   AIR MASS SHOULD PRODUCE CRITICAL CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
   FORECASTS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL MOVE
   ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER. AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH DAYTIME
   HEATING...SOME MIXING OF THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
   OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE CHIRICAHUA AND GUADALUPE
   MOUNTAINS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH APPEAR LIKELY WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH MORE
   WESTERLY FLOW AND POSSIBLE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES STILL APPEAR LIKELY
   GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE. AS TEMPERATURES
   GENERALLY WARM INTO THE 80S...RH VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 10 PERCENT.
   WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO EARLY
   SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL SUPPORT POOR RH RECOVERY DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   ...INTERIOR FL PENINSULA...
   WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO
   FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. WITH
   AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...RH VALUES WILL
   REMAIN CRITICALLY LOW...FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
   E ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA COMPARED TO THE
   PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WSW WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
   BELOW 20 MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/04/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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