Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070859
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0359 AM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FL PENINSULA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE SERN
   STATES...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FL PENINSULA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
   HOT AND DRY. FARTHER W...ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE
   NRN PLAINS SWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. WLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A
   RESULT FROM MT TO NM AND W TX WHERE MODERATELY WINDY AND DRY
   CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NRN
   PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
   THE DAKOTAS WITH MODERATELY LOW RH VALUES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FL PENINSULA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / HOT TEMPERATURES / DRY AND UNSTABLE
   LOWER ATMOSPHERE / DROUGHT
   
   ...FL PENINSULA...
   IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY TODAY WITH VERY LOW RH IN THE FL
   INTERIOR. HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP
   VERTICAL MIXING TO LOWER RH LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT IN SPOTS. STRONG
   HEATING WILL ALSO ALLOW MIXING LAYERS TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 7000-8000
   FT AGL...MAKING FOR A VERY UNSTABLE SITUATION BY AFTERNOON. IN
   ADDITION TO THE WARM AND DRY AIR MASS...SUSTAINED WLY WINDS OF 10-15
   MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH.
   
   ...FAR SW TX / SRN NM...
   A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN NM INTO SWRN TX THROUGH THE
   DAY...WITH MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT COMING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES.
   STRONG HEATING AND VERTICAL MIXING WILL ALLOW SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS
   OF 15-20 MPH TO DEVELOP...WITH HIGHER SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH NEAR RIDGE
   TOPS. MIN RH WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY...
   SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH...WITH
   SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH COMMON. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL ALLOW
   RH LEVELS TO DROP TO 30-35 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF MN AND WI.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/07/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 070953
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 AM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF SWRN CANADA INTO THE
   NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
   SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH LOWERING
   PRESSURE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGHER WINDS AS A RESULT. AT THE
   SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
   INTO WRN KS AND SERN CO BY LATE MONDAY. STRONG WINDS BUT COOLER
   TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH RAIN/STORMS ALONG
   AND AHEAD OF IT. MEANWHILE...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
   AZ/NM/W TX...AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP GIVEN INCREASING
   WLY WINDS.
   
   TO THE SOUTH...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN
   AND STORMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...SHIFTING EWD
   ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIST. SOUTH
   OF THIS BOUNDARY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
   FL PENINSULA.
   
   ...AZ / NM / W TX...
   NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN
   RESPONSE TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
   PLACE...AS SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH/STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AFFECT
   THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
   ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN NM AS WELL AS FAR SWRN TX...IN AREAS THAT
   HAVE RECEIVED LITTLE PRECIPITATION RECENTLY. COMBINATION OF WIND AND
    RH / 20-25 MPH AND 10-15 PERCENT / WOULD NORMALLY YIELD CRITICAL
   FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS OF NM...BUT RECENT
   PRECIPITATION WILL MITIGATE THREAT. 
   
   ...NRN LOWER MI...
   MARGINAL FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST MONDAY DUE TO DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
   WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MARGINAL SLY WINDS ALONG. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
   10-15 MPH WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH MIN RH OF 25-30 PERCENT.
   PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER MI HAVE RECEIVED LITTLE RAIN RECENTLY...THUS
   AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/07/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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