Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 080833
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0333 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AND SRN INTERIOR FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
   KEEP HUMIDITIES LOW OVER THE FL PENINSULA ALONG WITH WARM
   TEMPERATURES. TO THE WEST...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL
   CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...CAUSING A
   SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DEVELOP FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
   WRN KS AND W TX. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS AZ/NM/W
   TX...AND NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM NRN AZ INTO NM
   AND SW TX DUE TO MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS. ELSEWHERE...LOW HUMIDITY
   WILL EXIST OVER LOWER MI WITH SLY FLOW OUT OF NERN SURFACE HIGH FOR
   A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT THERE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN AND SRN INTERIOR FL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / WARM TEMPERATURES / DROUGHT / LOCALLY
   GUSTY W WIND
   
   IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ACROSS SRN FL...WITH HIGH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND RH LEVELS DROPPING INTO THE 30
   PERCENT RANGE...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE COASTAL
   AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAY INCREASE TO
   AS MUCH AS 15 MPH IN SPOTS. GIVEN VERY HIGH KBDI VALUES OF 600-700
   AND ONGOING FIRES...CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
   
   ...NRN AZ / NM / SW TX...
   WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DRIFT SWD.
   THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER NRN AZ WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR
   20 MPH...DECREASING TO 15-20 MPH OVER MOST OF NM AND W TX. WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE HIGHER IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH. RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW
   AT 10-15 PERCENT. LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY EXIST IN AREAS
   THAT ARE NOT IN GREENUP.
   
   ...LOWER MI...
   IT WILL BE A WARM AND DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SLY WINDS AROUND 15
   MPH AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 70. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE LOW DUE TO WIND
   TRAJECTORIES COMING OUT OF HIGH TO THE EAST...WITH 25-30 PERCENT
   COMMON. RECENT LACK OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS COMBINED WITH
   LOW RH AND MODERATE WINDS WILL MAY CAUSE CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO
   DEVELOP FOR A COUPLE HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/08/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 080955
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0455 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NM AND SWRN TX...FAR ERN
   AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
   PLAINS ON TUESDAY...EMERGING INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF
   THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM MN INTO
   MO SWWD ACROSS NRN OK AND INTO NERN NM BY TUE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
   THIS FRONT...A HOT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL EXIST OVER AZ/NM/TX...WITH
   INCREASING WLY WINDS W OF SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BE OVER NW TX
   DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM IN FL WITH LOW RH VALUES...BUT
   PERHAPS NOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. LOW RH VALUES WILL EXIST
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN STATES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...BUT WITH MAINLY
   LIGHT WINDS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF NM AND SWRN TX...FAR ERN
   AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
   
   CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE TUE WITH INCREASING WLY
   WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE AREA
   TO THE NORTH...AND WILL CAUSE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ACROSS
   THE SRN PLAINS. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS LOW WILL BE VERY DRY WITH
   MIN RH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT LIKELY. IN ADDITION...SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY FROM
   EXTREME ERN AZ ACROSS NM AND INTO WRN TX. THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED
   IN AREAS JUST E OF CRITICAL ZONE...DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND
   POSSIBLE GREENUP. HOWEVER...LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND
   FARTHER E THAN CURRENT OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ...INTERIOR FL PENINSULA...
   IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM TUESDAY SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
   WILL EXTEND ACROSS NRN FL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
   THIS BOUNDARY...AND DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY CAUSE
   ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA...MAINLY NRN
   AND ERN PORTIONS. IN AREAS THAT REMAIN DRY...RH LEVELS WILL APPROACH
   CRITICAL LEVELS BELOW 40 PERCENT AT PEAK HEATING WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.
   DUE TO FORECAST WEAKER WIND SPEEDS AND POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...AREA
   WILL NOT BE OUTLOOKED AS CRITICAL...ALTHOUGH SOME PORTION COULD BE
   UPGRADED IF IT BECOMES APPARENT RH WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN CURRENTLY
   FORECAST.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/08/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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