Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 150913
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0413 AM CDT MON MAY 15 2006
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS
TODAY AS UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE WEST. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
DIRECTED NWWD AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL GRAZE THE PAC NW
DURING THE PERIOD. ISO-SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE MOVING NEWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
EVENING HRS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE DRY GIVEN THE VERY DRY/WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCT DRY
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN SEWD INTO
ERN/NRN AZ AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION
AROUND THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE OVERALL DRY TSTM THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH ACROSS ALL THESE REGIONS TO PRECLUDE A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION...COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. RELATIVELY LOW RH READINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SFC HIGH...BUT NLY WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS...A SFC FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH
FLA. INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND SCT MOD-HVY PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY OVER THE STATE TODAY.
...INTERIOR PAC NW...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS AIDED IN TSTMS OVER NV THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL MOVE NWWD INTO ORE/WA AND ID TODAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES NEWD OFF THE PAC NW COAST. OROGRAPHIC FORCING COMBINED
WITH THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT ISO-SCT TSTMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES/BLUE MTNS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD
SUPPORT A NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF ERN ORE/WA AND WRN ORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS.
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS /90S/ WILL SUPPORT
LOW RH READINGS /15-20 PERCENT/. THUS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DRY
AS IT MOVES INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE APPRECIABLY HIGH GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER
FORCING...AND THEREFORE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED.
...ERN AZ INTO THE GREAT BASIN...
A SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR ERN AZ DURING THE MORNING HRS.
COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE WHITE MTNS...A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL EXIST OVER THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. MID
LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS AND INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTATION SHOULD TAKE
CONVECTION WWD TOWARDS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ECENTRAL/SERN AZ
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
HIGH BASED WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY WARM/DEEPLY
MIXED BNDRY LAYER OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. FURTHER NORTH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN...ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED-SCT DRY TSTMS IS EXPECTED AS
MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO EXIST NEAR THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER.
..CROSBIE.. 05/15/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 150922
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 AM CDT MON MAY 15 2006
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AGAIN THE NATION WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST
AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. A VERY SIMILAR SURFACE PATTERN
WILL EXIST TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE NATION
EAST OF THE ROCKIES. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. RECENT RAINFALL OVER NRN/CENTRAL FLA ON DAY ONE IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON DAY
TWO...DESPITE LOWER DEWPTS IN THIS AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
ACROSS THE WEST...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUPPORTING ISOLATED TSTMS IN THIS REGION.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE DRY...BUT AGAIN AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. ISOLATED-SCT DRY TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
AZ/NV.
...AZ/NV...
ISOLATED-SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NRN/ERN AZ NWWD INTO NV DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS/PROPAGATES INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
LIKELY HAVE LITTLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A DEEPLY MIXED BNDRY LAYER.
..CROSBIE.. 05/15/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...