Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150913
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0413 AM CDT MON MAY 15 2006
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   RELATIVELY STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS
   TODAY AS UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGING
   REMAINS OVER THE WEST. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
   UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
   EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
   DIRECTED NWWD AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL GRAZE THE PAC NW
   DURING THE PERIOD. ISO-SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE MOVING NEWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
   EVENING HRS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE DRY GIVEN THE VERY DRY/WARM
   BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCT DRY
   TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN SEWD INTO
   ERN/NRN AZ AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION
   AROUND THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE OVERALL DRY TSTM THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH ACROSS ALL THESE REGIONS TO PRECLUDE A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION...COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE
   WILL DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. RELATIVELY LOW RH READINGS WILL
   ACCOMPANY THIS SFC HIGH...BUT NLY WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LOW
   ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE
   MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS...A SFC FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH
   FLA. INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND SCT MOD-HVY PRECIPITATION WILL
   OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY OVER THE STATE TODAY.
   
   ...INTERIOR PAC NW...
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS AIDED IN TSTMS OVER NV THE LAST FEW DAYS
   WILL MOVE NWWD INTO ORE/WA AND ID TODAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   THAT MOVES NEWD OFF THE PAC NW COAST. OROGRAPHIC FORCING COMBINED
   WITH THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT ISO-SCT TSTMS OVER
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES/BLUE MTNS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD
   SUPPORT A NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS
   OF ERN ORE/WA AND WRN ORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS.
   NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS /90S/ WILL SUPPORT
   LOW RH READINGS /15-20 PERCENT/. THUS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DRY
   AS IT MOVES INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS
   NOT EXPECTED TO BE APPRECIABLY HIGH GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER
   FORCING...AND THEREFORE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT
   EXPECTED.
   
   ...ERN AZ INTO THE GREAT BASIN...
   A SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR ERN AZ DURING THE MORNING HRS.
   COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE WHITE MTNS...A FOCUS FOR
   CONVECTION WILL EXIST OVER THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. MID
   LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS AND INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTATION SHOULD TAKE
   CONVECTION WWD TOWARDS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ECENTRAL/SERN AZ
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
   HIGH BASED WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY WARM/DEEPLY
   MIXED BNDRY LAYER OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. FURTHER NORTH OVER THE
   GREAT BASIN...ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED-SCT DRY TSTMS IS EXPECTED AS
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO EXIST NEAR THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/15/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150922
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0422 AM CDT MON MAY 15 2006
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AGAIN THE NATION WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST
   AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. A VERY SIMILAR SURFACE PATTERN
   WILL EXIST TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE NATION
   EAST OF THE ROCKIES. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   SURFACE HIGH...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER
   CONCERNS. RECENT RAINFALL OVER NRN/CENTRAL FLA ON DAY ONE IS
   EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON DAY
   TWO...DESPITE LOWER DEWPTS IN THIS AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
   
   
   ACROSS THE WEST...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
   RIDGE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUPPORTING ISOLATED TSTMS IN THIS REGION.
   SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE DRY...BUT AGAIN AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. ISOLATED-SCT DRY TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
   AZ/NV.
   
   ...AZ/NV...
   ISOLATED-SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   OF NRN/ERN AZ NWWD INTO NV DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY OF THIS
   CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS/PROPAGATES INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
   LIKELY HAVE LITTLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A DEEPLY MIXED BNDRY LAYER.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/15/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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