Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 200930
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0430 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN AND ERN NV/EXTREME SWRN
   UT/EXTREME NWRN AZ...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR GA COASTAL PLAIN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE WRN RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY EWD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH DIGS OFF THE CA COAST AND ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVES
   SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
   ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A LEE TROUGH CENTERED IN THE TX PANHANDLE
   WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CNTRL TX. A
   WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY WILL SLIDE
   QUICKLY EAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING...WITH AN
   INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN AND ERN NV/EXTREME SWRN
   UT/EXTREME NWRN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / STEEP LAPSE
   RATES
   
   CONTINUED MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM AROUND 30 TO 50 MPH IN CONJUCTION WITH
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S AND
   90S IN THE GREAT BASIN...AND INTO THE LOWER 100S IN THE LOWER CO
   RIVER VALLEY...RH VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH
   WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL
   CONTINUE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST APPROACHES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - GA COASTAL PLAIN...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / VERY WARM
   TEMPERATURES
   
   TO THE SOUTH OF A QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE
   CAROLINAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A ZONE OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES
   AND GUSTY WINDS APPEARS LIKELY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
   LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS MIXING INTO THE
   50S...WILL PROVIDE RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. AREA
   WIND PROFILERS INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS RUNNING FROM W TO E
   ACROSS THE FAR SRN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. THIS AXIS WILL MOVE
   ACROSS ERN GA AND SC BY NOON. SUFFICIENT MIXING OF THIS WIND MAXIMUM
   WILL OCCUR TO PROMOTE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON. THE CRITICAL THREAT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
   WINDS DECREASE RAPIDLY AND RH RECOVERY ENSUES.
   
   ...MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN NM...
   VERY HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES DUE TO A VERY DRY BOUNDARY
   LAYER. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH
   MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAK...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
   STORMS.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF SW AND S-CNTRL TX NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
   SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN FRIDAY AS THE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
   OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF MID-LEVEL
   SUPPORT...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL HOLD AROUND 15 MPH.
   NEAR-SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH CONTINUED
   S/SE WINDS. HOT TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL ALLOW RH TO
   FALL TO AROUND CRITICALLY LOW VALUES OF 20 PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/20/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200959
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0459 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AND SRN NV/SWRN UT/NWRN AZ/CA
   DESERTS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT ONTO THE
   PLAINS AS A LARGE TROUGH ENTERS CA. STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEEDS WILL
   OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FROM SRN CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IN THE
   EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EWD
   ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. RELATIVELY WEAK MID AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
   FORECAST TO THE S OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN AND SRN NV/SWRN UT/NWRN AZ/CA
   DESERTS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
   
   STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CRITICAL
   AREA ON SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE CA
   COAST. A WIDESPREAD CRITICAL EVENT IS POSSIBLE AS MID-LEVEL WINDS
   INCREASE TO AROUND 40 TO 60 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MECHANICAL MIXING OF THESE STRONG
   WINDS. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE COUNTERACTED BY GENERAL UPWARD MOTION 
   IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ON THE NRN END OF THE CRITICAL
   AREA. NEVERTHELESS...WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30
   MPH APPEAR LIKELY...WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.
   TEMPERATURES WILL DISPLAY A WIDE RANGE WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL
   CLOUDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN LIMITING VALUES TO THE 70S HERE.
   FURTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 100 IN THE LOWER
   CO RIVER VALLEY WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 15
   PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH 
   MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS AS EVEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT APPROACH.
   THIS WILL PROMOTE POOR RH RECOVERY SUNDAY NIGHT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/20/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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