Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 210908
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0408 AM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AND SRN NV/SWRN UT/NWRN AZ/CA
   DESERTS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD
   ONTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   APPROACHES THE CA COAST. STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEEDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
   THIS TROUGH FROM SRN CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
   TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND PROVIDE A FOCUS
   FOR ISOLATED DRY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
   RELATIVELY WEAK MID AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO THE S OF THIS
   TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN AND SRN NV/SWRN UT/NWRN AZ/CA
   DESERTS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / WARM TEMPERATURES
   
   STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WERE INDICATED BY PROFILER
   DATA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA THIS MORNING. THIS AXIS OF STRONG
   WINDS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE CRITICAL AREA TODAY. A
   WIDESPREAD CRITICAL EVENT APPEARS LIKELY AS STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES HELP MIX THE STRONGER WINDS TOWARDS THE SURFACE.
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL REACH 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
   AROUND 40 MPH. RH CRITERIA WILL EASILY BE REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE
   CRITICAL AREA...AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 100S. RH
   VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
   AFTERNOON. IN THE NWRN PORTION OF THE CRITICAL AREA FROM THE OWENS
   VALLEY INTO E-CNTRL NV...RH VALUES WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY LOW
   /AROUND 15 PERCENT/. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 70S...AS
   UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS RETARDS SURFACE HEATING. NEVERTHELESS...THE
   STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY EXIST HERE OWING TO CLOSER
   PROXIMITY TO MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. 
   
   POOR RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
   INTO SRN NV. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP SUSTAIN SOUTHERLY
   WINDS IN THIS AREA FROM 15 TO 20 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE ERN NM PLAINS INTO FAR NW TX...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
   DRYLINE/PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
   CENTERED AROUND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES COMBINED WITH LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WOULD HELP
   PRODUCE VERY HIGH BASED TSTMS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
   LIGHT...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/21/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 211001
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0501 AM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF AZ/WRN AND NRN NM/CNTRL
   AND SRN UT/FAR WRN AND SRN CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DISPLACED
   EWD BY A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF SRN CA MONDAY
   MORNING...REACHING THE WY AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE
   SHOULD HELP PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD CRITICAL EVENT IN THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION. IN THE EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL
   SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK LOW AND MID-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MOST OF AZ/WRN AND NRN NM/CNTRL
   AND SRN UT/FAR WRN AND SRN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / STEEP LAPSE RATES
   
   A LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH
   STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES. MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS OF 45 TO 65
   MPH WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA NEAR AND AHEAD OF
   A RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE. STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   DEVELOP AS DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES...AND THIS WILL HELP TO BRING
   HIGHER WIND SPEEDS TOWARD THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
   MPH APPEAR LIKELY WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN NRN/ERN
   AZ INTO NWRN NM. PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS MAY BE UPGRADED IN THE DAY
   1 OUTLOOK...IF EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MIN RH VALUES OF 10
   TO 15 PERCENT SHOULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CRITICAL
   AREA...WITH EVEN LOWER READINGS OVER SERN AZ AND SWRN NM. RH VALUES
   WILL BE LOW FOR A SHORTER TIME SPAN ON THE WRN PORTION OF THE
   CRITICAL AREA...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND RH
   VALUES RISE. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CRITICAL AREA
   MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AND WINDS BECOME
   MORE WLY.
   
   ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE CRITICAL AREA FROM CNTRL/SRN UT INTO
   WRN AND SRN CO...POTENTIAL FOR DRY TSTMS ALSO EXISTS GIVEN THE STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION
   AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
   WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING. IF GREATER COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY IN THE DAY 1
   OUTLOOK...THIS AREA MAY BE HIGHLIGHTED AS A DRY TSTM CRITICAL AREA
   AS WELL.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/21/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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