Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 210908
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0408 AM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AND SRN NV/SWRN UT/NWRN AZ/CA
DESERTS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD
ONTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CA COAST. STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEEDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH FROM SRN CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED DRY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
RELATIVELY WEAK MID AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO THE S OF THIS
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN AND SRN NV/SWRN UT/NWRN AZ/CA
DESERTS...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / WARM TEMPERATURES
STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WERE INDICATED BY PROFILER
DATA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA THIS MORNING. THIS AXIS OF STRONG
WINDS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE CRITICAL AREA TODAY. A
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL EVENT APPEARS LIKELY AS STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HELP MIX THE STRONGER WINDS TOWARDS THE SURFACE.
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL REACH 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH. RH CRITERIA WILL EASILY BE REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE
CRITICAL AREA...AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 100S. RH
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE NWRN PORTION OF THE CRITICAL AREA FROM THE OWENS
VALLEY INTO E-CNTRL NV...RH VALUES WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY LOW
/AROUND 15 PERCENT/. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 70S...AS
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS RETARDS SURFACE HEATING. NEVERTHELESS...THE
STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY EXIST HERE OWING TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX.
POOR RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
INTO SRN NV. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP SUSTAIN SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THIS AREA FROM 15 TO 20 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
...PORTIONS OF THE ERN NM PLAINS INTO FAR NW TX...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
DRYLINE/PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED AROUND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WOULD HELP
PRODUCE VERY HIGH BASED TSTMS. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS.
..GRAMS.. 05/21/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 211001
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 AM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF AZ/WRN AND NRN NM/CNTRL
AND SRN UT/FAR WRN AND SRN CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DISPLACED
EWD BY A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN VICINITY OF SRN CA MONDAY
MORNING...REACHING THE WY AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE
SHOULD HELP PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD CRITICAL EVENT IN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. IN THE EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL
SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK LOW AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MOST OF AZ/WRN AND NRN NM/CNTRL
AND SRN UT/FAR WRN AND SRN CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / STEEP LAPSE RATES
A LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES. MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS OF 45 TO 65
MPH WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA NEAR AND AHEAD OF
A RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE. STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
DEVELOP AS DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES...AND THIS WILL HELP TO BRING
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS TOWARD THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH APPEAR LIKELY WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN NRN/ERN
AZ INTO NWRN NM. PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS MAY BE UPGRADED IN THE DAY
1 OUTLOOK...IF EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MIN RH VALUES OF 10
TO 15 PERCENT SHOULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CRITICAL
AREA...WITH EVEN LOWER READINGS OVER SERN AZ AND SWRN NM. RH VALUES
WILL BE LOW FOR A SHORTER TIME SPAN ON THE WRN PORTION OF THE
CRITICAL AREA...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND RH
VALUES RISE. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CRITICAL AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AND WINDS BECOME
MORE WLY.
ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE CRITICAL AREA FROM CNTRL/SRN UT INTO
WRN AND SRN CO...POTENTIAL FOR DRY TSTMS ALSO EXISTS GIVEN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IF GREATER COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY IN THE DAY 1
OUTLOOK...THIS AREA MAY BE HIGHLIGHTED AS A DRY TSTM CRITICAL AREA
AS WELL.
..GRAMS.. 05/21/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...