Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 220900
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ/SERN UT/WRN AND CNTRL
   NM/FAR SRN CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SERN UT/NRN NM/SWRN
   CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE SRN CA COASTLINE WILL PUSH RAPIDLY
   NEWD TODAY AND REACH THE WY/CO AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH
   WILL DISPLACE EWD THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
   HIGH PLAINS. IN THE EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE ME
   COASTLINE WILL SHIFT NEWD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK LOW AND
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND FL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN AZ/SERN UT/WRN AND CNTRL
   NM/FAR SRN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / STEEP LAPSE RATES
   
   WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE THIS
   MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN AZ INTO WRN NM.
   STRONG MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS OF 45 TO 65 WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
   FOUR CORNERS AREA NEAR AND AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE
   LIFTING NE FROM SRN CA. STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   DEVELOP AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...MIXING SOME OF THESE HIGHER
   WINDS TOWARDS THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
   WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN ERN AZ INTO WRN NM. AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO 90S...MIN RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15
   PERCENT WILL OCCUR IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN LOWER READINGS OVER
   SERN AZ AND SWRN NM.
   
   THE CRITICAL THREAT WILL LIKELY BE SHORTER-LIVED ON THE WRN AND NRN
   FRINGES OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL
   AZ/S-CNTRL UT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
   EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN UT INTO SRN CO. RH
   VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS...UNTIL
   INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE RAISES THE SURFACE RH. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
   INTO MUCH OF THE CRITICAL AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE
   TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AND WINDS BECOME MORE W/NWLY. THE STRONGER WINDS
   AND LOWER RH WILL HOLD ON LONGEST E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN NM.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - PORTIONS OF SERN UT/NRN NM/SWRN
   CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY TO
   MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...GIVEN
   SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LIFT/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
   AHEAD OF THE SRN CA SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH SOME SURFACE MOISTURE
   INCREASE HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AREA SOUNDINGS FROM
   SUNDAY EVENING INDICATE A VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS EXISTS IN THE
   FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY GIVE RISE TO HIGH-BASED
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE DRY...WITH A
   PROPENSITY FOR MORE WETTING RAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND TEMPERATURES COOL/RH VALUES
   INCREASE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/22/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 220956
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0456 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2006
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM / WRN TX AND OK
   PANHANDLES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN VICINITY OF WY/CO ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL
   RAPIDLY SLOW AS IT DEEPENS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE
   SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF IN SD WITH A PRESSURE
   TROUGH/DRY LINE SWD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES OF
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN BOTH THE SWRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE
   CONUS...PROVIDING WEAK LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW IN BOTH AREAS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN NM / WRN TX AND OK
   PANHANDLES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / VERY LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRY LINE MIXES EWD TOWARDS THE ERN
   TX/OK PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 100S ARE
   FORECAST...ALLOWING RH VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 6 TO 12 PERCENT.
   ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST MID AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR FURTHER
   NORTH IN VICINITY OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW...A ZONE OF MODERATE WLYS
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH
   GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
   SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING AS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT WANES
   AND THE DRY LINE BEGINS TO MIX WWD.
   
   ...ERN PLAINS OF CO INTO FAR WRN KS...
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER
   UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO THE AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
   EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...PRECLUDES AN ISSUANCE AT
   THIS TIME. OWING TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NRN PLAINS
   LOW...MODERATE-STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
   TUESDAY...WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH PROBABLE.
   ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH W/NW FLOW...RH VALUES MAY
   APPROACH 15 TO 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE EFFECTS OF TSTMS ON MONDAY
   NIGHT ON BOTH THE RH AND FUELS WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING
   POTENTIAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/22/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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