Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 230917
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0417 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN PLAINS OF NM INTO PORTIONS OF
   FAR NW TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN WY/CO WILL SLOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NRN
   PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NNE FROM SERN MT
   INTO SERN MANITOBA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COOL FRONT/DRY LINE WILL
   TRAIL SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. IN THE NORTHEAST...CONTINUED NW
   FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE
   CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER MOST OF THE
   SWRN AND SERN CONUS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN PLAINS OF NM INTO PORTIONS OF
   FAR NW TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   VERY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
   THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRY LINE MIXES EWD TOWARDS INTO THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S AND DEW POINTS
   MAINLY IN THE 20S...WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 5 TO 10
   PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY...AS THE STRONGEST MID
   AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR FURTHER NORTH IN VICINITY OF THE NRN
   PLAINS LOW. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS MAY OCCUR IN
   THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS AS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT AND STRENGTH OF THE
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   NEVERTHELESS...STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW WLY
   WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD OF LOWEST
   RH. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME NLY AFTER A
   COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
   
   ...FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR OF N-CNTRL CO...
   A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY COMBINE WITH
   MARGINALLY LOW RH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIKELY WETTED FUELS IN MOST LOCATIONS. A
   LOCALIZED CRITICAL THREAT MAY EXIST IN AREAS WHICH DID NOT RECEIVE
   SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL.
   
   AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA THIS
   MORNING...DOWNSLOPE WLY FLOW WILL BE INDUCED. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40
   MPH SHOULD OCCUR...UNDER A 35 TO 50 MPH MID-LEVEL JET. RH VALUES
   WILL DROP RAPIDLY...AND SHOULD APPROACH 15 TO 20 PERCENT THIS
   AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/23/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 230943
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0443 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IN THE DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL
   DRIFT EWD INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
   TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE TO STRONG MID-FLOW WILL
   DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
   OVER THE WRN AND ERN THIRDS OF THE NATION WILL ALLOW WEAK FLOW TO
   PREVAIL IN THE SWRN AND SERN CONUS.
   
   ...SERN MT/NERN WY/WRN SD...
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
   RAINFALL EFFECTS ON FUELS FROM SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY
   PRECLUDES AN ISSUANCE ATTM. LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
   BE THE LIKELY SCENARIO WITH AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL
   RAINFALL.
   
   IN BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW IN MN AND A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CNTRL
   ROCKIES...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST. IN
   ADDITION...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL JETS WILL BE FAVORABLY ALIGNED
   FROM THE NW TO THE W OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN MN. DOWNWARD
   MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW MIXING OF THESE JETS TOWARDS THE
   SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
   APPEAR LIKELY WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
   HELPS BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S TO 80S...RH VALUES WILL
   LIKELY REACH 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/23/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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