Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 250835
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2006
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   FIRE CONCERNS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED FROM THE GREAT BASIN
   INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES WHERE VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
   PREVAIL AHEAD OF E PACIFIC UPPER LOW/TROUGH. WINDS WILL START TO
   INCREASE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE BUT WILL REMAIN LARGELY
   BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...MDT TO HIGH HAINES WILL PERSIST
   ACROSS A LARGE AREA WITH EXTREMELY LOW RH LEVELS. IN
   ADDITION...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
   CO...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND VERY DRY
   AIR MASS.
   
   FARTHER E INTO THE SRN PLAINS...IT WILL REMAIN HOT WITH INCREASED
   SLY FLOW DUE TO LOWERING PRESSURES OVER NM AND W TX...BUT RH LEVELS
   WILL BE MITIGATED A BIT BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SE.
   SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS OF NM INTO W
   TX...BUT THESE WILL BE MAINLY WET WITH GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN SOME
   SMALL HAIL. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY ON BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WHERE IT HAS
   RAINED RECENTLY.
   
   ...AZ / NM / SRN CO...
   CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
   SHORTWAVE DRIFTING EWD OUT OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. SUSTAINED
   SWLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
   WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 MPH DUE TO STRONG MIXING. IT WILL AGAIN BE
   VERY WARM AND EXTREMELY DRY...WITH RH DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
   DIGITS. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE BY LATE
   AFTERNOON /HIGH HAINES/ WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
   FOR PLUME DOMINATED FIRES. SPECIFIC AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS
   SERN UT...SRN CO...NRN AZ AND MOST OF NM...AND ANYWHERE FIRES ARE
   CURRENTLY ONGOING.
   
   ...CENTRAL CO INTO FAR NRN NM / NRN UT...
   STRONG HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL CO.
   PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOW SO STORMS WILL
   PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN. LIGHTNING PRODUCED WITH THESE STORMS MAY
   SPARK NEW FIRES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF CO AND POINTS
   SOUTH WHERE FUELS ARE DRIEST. A LOWER PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR DRY
   LIGHTNING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN UT...WITH LIGHT WLY
   UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WASATCH MTNS.
   
   ...NV INTO WRN UT...
   WINDS WILL BLOW OUT OF THE WEST AT 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
   UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
   PREVIOUS DAY WITH RH LEVELS FROM 15-20 PERCENT AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS
   OF 15-20 MPH ACROSS NRN UT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS INTO
   UT...ALTHOUGH RH WILL ALSO BE LOWER AT 10-15 PERCENT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/25/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 251808
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0108 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NV / UT / SRN WY / WRN AND SRN
   CO / NRN AND ERN AZ / NM / FAR SW TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI...AS
   WRN U.S. TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WINDS
   WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE SWRN U.S. AS A RESULT WHILE REMAINING
   VERY WARM AND DRY. FARTHER E...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
   FROM TX TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH STRONG SLY WINDS. ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS WELL OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CO...WITH WET
   STORMS FARTHER E INTO ERN CO SWD INTO FAR ERN NM AND WRN TX.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN NV / UT / SRN WY / WRN AND SRN
   CO / NRN AND ERN AZ / NM / FAR SW TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / EXTREMELY LOW RH / MDT TO HIGH
   HAINES INDEX
   
   SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.
   RH WILL REMAIN LOW AND BELOW 15 PERCENT AREAWIDE...WITH MANY
   LOCATIONS BELOW 10 PERCENT. FUELS ARE EXTREMELY DRY GIVEN DROUGHT.
   COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS...LOW RH AND A HIGH HAINES INDEX WILL
   ALLOW FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH RECOVERY
   WILL BE POOR OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE
   WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY.
   
   ...REMAINDER OF ERN CO AND NM...AS WELL AS WRN TX...
   CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL FRIDAY DUE TO VERY WARM
   TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS OF 20-30 MPH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS RH
   LEVELS WILL ONLY DROP TO 20-30 PERCENT E OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
   ALSO...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
   THEREFORE...MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE MITIGATING FACTOR...ALTHOUGH
   CRITICAL AREA COULD BE EXTENDED EWD IF PRECIPITATION FAILS TO
   MATERIALIZE AND RH LEVELS LOWER.
   
   ...CENTRAL CO...
   ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY FRIDAY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. AFTER MANY DAYS OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER...IGNITION
   EFFICIENCY OF ANY STRIKES WILL BE HIGH. ALSO...GIVEN CRITICAL
   COMBINATION OF WIND AND RH...ANY NEW FIRES COULD QUICKLY GET OUT OF
   CONTROL.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/25/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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