Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 250835
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2006
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE CONCERNS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED FROM THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES WHERE VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AHEAD OF E PACIFIC UPPER LOW/TROUGH. WINDS WILL START TO
INCREASE TODAY DUE TO WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE BUT WILL REMAIN LARGELY
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...MDT TO HIGH HAINES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS A LARGE AREA WITH EXTREMELY LOW RH LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
CO...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND VERY DRY
AIR MASS.
FARTHER E INTO THE SRN PLAINS...IT WILL REMAIN HOT WITH INCREASED
SLY FLOW DUE TO LOWERING PRESSURES OVER NM AND W TX...BUT RH LEVELS
WILL BE MITIGATED A BIT BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SE.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS OF NM INTO W
TX...BUT THESE WILL BE MAINLY WET WITH GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN SOME
SMALL HAIL. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY ON BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WHERE IT HAS
RAINED RECENTLY.
...AZ / NM / SRN CO...
CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE DRIFTING EWD OUT OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. SUSTAINED
SWLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 MPH DUE TO STRONG MIXING. IT WILL AGAIN BE
VERY WARM AND EXTREMELY DRY...WITH RH DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON /HIGH HAINES/ WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR PLUME DOMINATED FIRES. SPECIFIC AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS
SERN UT...SRN CO...NRN AZ AND MOST OF NM...AND ANYWHERE FIRES ARE
CURRENTLY ONGOING.
...CENTRAL CO INTO FAR NRN NM / NRN UT...
STRONG HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL CO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOW SO STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN. LIGHTNING PRODUCED WITH THESE STORMS MAY
SPARK NEW FIRES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF CO AND POINTS
SOUTH WHERE FUELS ARE DRIEST. A LOWER PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR DRY
LIGHTNING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN UT...WITH LIGHT WLY
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WASATCH MTNS.
...NV INTO WRN UT...
WINDS WILL BLOW OUT OF THE WEST AT 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAY WITH RH LEVELS FROM 15-20 PERCENT AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS
OF 15-20 MPH ACROSS NRN UT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS INTO
UT...ALTHOUGH RH WILL ALSO BE LOWER AT 10-15 PERCENT.
..JEWELL.. 05/25/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 251808
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NV / UT / SRN WY / WRN AND SRN
CO / NRN AND ERN AZ / NM / FAR SW TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI...AS
WRN U.S. TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE SWRN U.S. AS A RESULT WHILE REMAINING
VERY WARM AND DRY. FARTHER E...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
FROM TX TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH STRONG SLY WINDS. ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS WELL OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CO...WITH WET
STORMS FARTHER E INTO ERN CO SWD INTO FAR ERN NM AND WRN TX.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN NV / UT / SRN WY / WRN AND SRN
CO / NRN AND ERN AZ / NM / FAR SW TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / EXTREMELY LOW RH / MDT TO HIGH
HAINES INDEX
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.
RH WILL REMAIN LOW AND BELOW 15 PERCENT AREAWIDE...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS BELOW 10 PERCENT. FUELS ARE EXTREMELY DRY GIVEN DROUGHT.
COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS...LOW RH AND A HIGH HAINES INDEX WILL
ALLOW FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY.
...REMAINDER OF ERN CO AND NM...AS WELL AS WRN TX...
CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL FRIDAY DUE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS OF 20-30 MPH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS RH
LEVELS WILL ONLY DROP TO 20-30 PERCENT E OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
ALSO...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE MITIGATING FACTOR...ALTHOUGH
CRITICAL AREA COULD BE EXTENDED EWD IF PRECIPITATION FAILS TO
MATERIALIZE AND RH LEVELS LOWER.
...CENTRAL CO...
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY FRIDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER MANY DAYS OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER...IGNITION
EFFICIENCY OF ANY STRIKES WILL BE HIGH. ALSO...GIVEN CRITICAL
COMBINATION OF WIND AND RH...ANY NEW FIRES COULD QUICKLY GET OUT OF
CONTROL.
..JEWELL.. 05/25/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...