Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 260859
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0359 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NV/FAR SERN CA/SRN
   WY/UT/AZ/NM/SRN AND WRN CO/SW KS/TX AND OK PANHANDLES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL COLORADO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN
   STATES TODAY...INCREASING WINDS AND CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE
   CONDITIONS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...WHERE IT WILL BE WINDY AS WELL DUE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
   ACROSS CO AND WY. SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW
   WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER CO WHERE SCATTERED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY.  ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
   TEMPERATURES WARM AND RH MODERATELY LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH EXCEPT
   FOR THE FL PENINSULA WHERE STORMS WILL OCCUR.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN NV/FAR SERN CA/SRN
   WY/UT/AZ/NM/SRN AND WRN CO/SW KS/TX AND OK PANHANDLES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH / MDT TO HIGH HAINES
   
   A LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE
   TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH CAUSES A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE. UNDER
   SUNNY SKIES...RH LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 6-15 PERCENT RANGE.
   APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CAUSE A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS WITH
   SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER MUCH OF
   NV...WRN UT...SRN WY...AND NRN AZ. SOMEWHAT REDUCED SPEEDS OF 15-25
   MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL CO INTO SRN AZ AND
   MUCH OF WRN NM. ALTHOUGH NOT AS WINDY...EXTREMELY LOW RH ALONG WITH
   A HIGH HAINES WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH AND
   SPREAD. FARTHER E INTO THE ERN PLAINS OF NM...W TX...SERN CO AND
   SWRN KS...SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHER FROM 20-30 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH.
   ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER INTO TX FROM 15-25
   PERCENT...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH WINDS WILL COMBINE TO
   CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. RH RECOVERY WILL REMAIN POOR IN
   MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS REMAINING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CENTRAL COLORADO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY LIGHTNING / LOW RH / HIGH HAINES INDEX /
   GUSTY WINDS
   
   SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
   AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN CO AS UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCES
   THE AREA AND PROVIDES EXTRA LIFT. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE VERY
   LOW...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP DUE TO COOLING ALOFT AND
   HEATING OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. WHEN LIGHTNING DOES OCCUR TODAY...SWLY
   WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND VERY LOW RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT AS WELL
   AS A HIGH HAINES INDEX SUGGEST ANY FIRE STARTS COULD QUICKLY BURN
   OUT OF CONTROL. ISOLATED STRIKES COULD OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS EXTREME
   NRN NM AS WELL...BUT THE BULK OF THE STRIKES WILL BE FARTHER N.
   
   ...WRN KS / OK & TX EAST OF THE DRYLINE...
   IT WILL BE VERY HOT AND WINDY E OF THE DRYLINE FROM WRN KS INTO THE
   OK/TX PANHANDLES...WITH SUSTAINED SLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH. RH VALUES
   WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 25-30 PERCENT AT PEAK HEATING. THE HIGHER
   MOISTURE LEVELS...ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF ISOLATED STORMS...WILL
   MITIGATE OVERALL THREAT SOMEWHAT. BEWARE IF RH LEVELS UNEXPECTEDLY
   DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/26/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 261029
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0529 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF UT/CO/AZ/NM AS WELL AS FAR
   SRN NV/SERN CA...SRN WY...SWRN KS...WRN TX/OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND WRN U.S. ON
   SAT...PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES
   AND SURROUNDING AREAS. WINDS ALOFT WILL PEAK ACROSS UT/WY/CO/AZ
   AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MAY CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO REACH
   EXTREME LEVELS. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS...CAUSING VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CONUS
   AS WELL ALONG WITH HOT TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY WARM ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES AS
   UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD INTO THOSE AREAS. RH WILL LOWER...BUT WINDS
   WILL BE LIGHT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MOST OF UT/CO/AZ/NM AS WELL AS FAR
   SRN NV/SERN CA...SRN WY...SWRN KS...WRN TX/OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: HIGH WINDS / VERY LOW RH / AREAS WITH HIGH
   HAINES INDEX / EXTREME DROUGHT
   
   UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION ON DAY 2 WHILE A VERY
   DRY AIR MASS REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN
   PREVIOUS DAY...WITH 30-40 MPH SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM NRN AZ INTO
   UT...CO...AND SRN WY. SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
   ELSEWHERE...AND GUSTS WILL EXCEED THESE SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   STRONG VERTICAL MIXING...ALONG WITH EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES AND VERY
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A HIGH HAINES INDEX
   ACROSS ALL OF NM AND CO...AS WELL AS SRN WY...ERN AZ...SERN UT AND
   WRN TX. THE EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH VERY LOW RH/HIGH
   WINDS/ AND A MDT TO HIGH HAINES INDEX WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY EXTREME
   FIRE BEHAVIOR. SOME AREAS COULD BE UPGRADED TO EXTREME IN NEXT DAY 1
   OUTLOOK.
   
   ...SERN WY / NERN CO INTO WRN NEBRASKA / NRN KS...
   NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE WITH STRONG 20-30 MPH
   WINDS AND RH AROUND 25 PERCENT. MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE
   POSSIBLE CLUSTER OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS LATE
   FRI INTO EARLY SAT...WHICH WOULD MOISTEN FUELS. IF LITTLE OR NO RAIN
   IS RECEIVED...THEN CRITICAL AREA WOULD LIKELY BE EXTENDED FARTHER NE
   INTO NEBRASKA.
   
   ...MS/AL/GA/NRN FL...
   PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
   90S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES OF 35-40
   PERCENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...BUT GIVEN RECENT
   DROUGHT...A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT MAY EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/26/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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