Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070954
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 AM CDT WED JUN 07 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN UT/WRN CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS.  ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...GENERALLY MOIST MID-LEVEL
   S/SE FLOW...ALONG WITH SUBTROPICAL IMPULSES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
   TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
   MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...LEADING TO INCREASED TSTM
   COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LIGHT WINDS AND VERY
   WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN FL...WITH A SURFACE
   HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN UT/WRN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL
   HEATING AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT FROM SUBTROPICAL
   IMPULSES ROTATING NWD TO THE W OF THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ACROSS
   THE SRN HI PLAINS. TUESDAY EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATED A VERY DRY
   SUB-CLOUD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MORNING SURFACE
   ANALYSES INDICATING A POCKET OF SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. WITH
   TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S AND 90S...SURFACE RH VALUES SHOULD
   FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH GENERAL SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
   AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SLOW MOISTENING...THE ANTECEDENT DRY
   AIR MASS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH-BASED TSTMS AND
   INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.
   
   ...ERN NV/WRN UT...
   FURTHER W OF THE CRITICAL AREA...THE DRY TSTM THREAT SHOULD BE
   MODULATED BY THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION AND LOWER TSTM COVERAGE. AN
   EXPANSIVE CIRRUS PLUME WILL LIKELY ROTATE N/NW OUT OF AZ/SRN NV AND
   LIMIT SURFACE HEATING TODAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE
   INSTABILITY AND SHOULD PROVIDE LOWER TSTM COVERAGE. GIVEN THE
   AMBIENT DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
   LIFT/MOISTURE FROM THE AZ IMPULSE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DRY
   TSTMS SHOULD STILL OCCUR.
   
   ...FAR ERN AZ/WRN NM...
   MODEST WIND SPEEDS AND MARGINALLY LOW RH MAY PROVIDE BRIEF CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS FROM TUESDAY EVENING
   TSTMS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
   90S...DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WOULD KEEP MIN RH VALUES
   ABOVE 15 PERCENT. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WILL
   OCCUR TODAY AS DEEP S/SELY FLOW CONTINUES TO THE W OF THE LARGE
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...WITH WETTING RAINS MORE LIKELY COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER
   N.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/07/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 070957
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0457 AM CDT WED JUN 07 2006
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE ON DAY 2...WITH A LARGE
   HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND TROUGHS ACROSS THE NW
   AND NE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE NEB
   PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
   STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...ERN CO/WRN KS/SW NEB...
   TO THE S OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NEB PANHANDLE...WILL EXIST AN
   AREA WHERE HOT TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE WINDS MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY/PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
   AND ITS EFFECT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/WINDS PRECLUDES A CRITICAL
   AREA ISSUANCE ATTM. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S WILL
   COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S BEHIND THE DRYLINE TO ALLOW RH
   VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT. LARGER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
   THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE
   GENERALLY FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN THE MOIST SECTOR
   UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS FORECAST A
   TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DRY LINE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
   SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/07/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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