Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 070954
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 AM CDT WED JUN 07 2006
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN UT/WRN CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...GENERALLY MOIST MID-LEVEL
S/SE FLOW...ALONG WITH SUBTROPICAL IMPULSES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...LEADING TO INCREASED TSTM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LIGHT WINDS AND VERY
WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN FL...WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN UT/WRN CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY THUNDERSTORMS
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL
HEATING AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT FROM SUBTROPICAL
IMPULSES ROTATING NWD TO THE W OF THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ACROSS
THE SRN HI PLAINS. TUESDAY EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATED A VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSES INDICATING A POCKET OF SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S AND 90S...SURFACE RH VALUES SHOULD
FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH GENERAL SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SLOW MOISTENING...THE ANTECEDENT DRY
AIR MASS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH-BASED TSTMS AND
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.
...ERN NV/WRN UT...
FURTHER W OF THE CRITICAL AREA...THE DRY TSTM THREAT SHOULD BE
MODULATED BY THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION AND LOWER TSTM COVERAGE. AN
EXPANSIVE CIRRUS PLUME WILL LIKELY ROTATE N/NW OUT OF AZ/SRN NV AND
LIMIT SURFACE HEATING TODAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE
INSTABILITY AND SHOULD PROVIDE LOWER TSTM COVERAGE. GIVEN THE
AMBIENT DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
LIFT/MOISTURE FROM THE AZ IMPULSE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DRY
TSTMS SHOULD STILL OCCUR.
...FAR ERN AZ/WRN NM...
MODEST WIND SPEEDS AND MARGINALLY LOW RH MAY PROVIDE BRIEF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS FROM TUESDAY EVENING
TSTMS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
90S...DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WOULD KEEP MIN RH VALUES
ABOVE 15 PERCENT. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WILL
OCCUR TODAY AS DEEP S/SELY FLOW CONTINUES TO THE W OF THE LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH WETTING RAINS MORE LIKELY COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER
N.
..GRAMS.. 06/07/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 070957
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 AM CDT WED JUN 07 2006
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE ON DAY 2...WITH A LARGE
HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND TROUGHS ACROSS THE NW
AND NE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE NEB
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
...ERN CO/WRN KS/SW NEB...
TO THE S OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NEB PANHANDLE...WILL EXIST AN
AREA WHERE HOT TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE WINDS MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY/PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
AND ITS EFFECT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/WINDS PRECLUDES A CRITICAL
AREA ISSUANCE ATTM. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S WILL
COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S BEHIND THE DRYLINE TO ALLOW RH
VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT. LARGER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE
GENERALLY FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN THE MOIST SECTOR
UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS FORECAST A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DRY LINE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.
..GRAMS.. 06/07/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...