Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 130849
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV AND UT...NRN AZ...SERN
   CA DESERTS AND EXTREME WRN CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. W OF
   UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOW
   RH. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NWRN MT SWD INTO
   WRN ID AND NWRN NV...WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. STORMS
   WILL BE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY ACROSS NWRN NV AND WILL CONTINUE
   INTO THE NIGHT AS THEY REFORM FARTHER E INTO NRN UT. FARTHER S UNDER
   THE RIDGE AXIS...IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT AND DRY WITH WEAKER
   WINDS...BUT LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS AND POTENTIAL FOR PLUME DOMINATED
   FIRES GIVEN HIGH HAINES ENVIRONMENT. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY HOT
   ACROSS TX WHERE LOCAL DROUGHT EXISTS AND RH WILL BE LOW.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF NV AND UT...NRN AZ...SERN CA
   DESERTS AND EXTREME WRN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SCATTERED DRY THUNDER
   (NV INTO UT)
   
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AND WILL NEAR
   EXTREME LEVELS AS WINDS INCREASE FURTHER. WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG
   ACROSS ERN NV...NWRN AZ AND WRN UT WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS NEAR
   30 MPH. GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT...BUT RH LEVELS WILL STILL REMAIN
   CRITICALLY LOW RANGING FROM NEAR 15 PERCENT OVER NRN NV TO THE
   SINGLE DIGITS FARTHER S.
   
   IN ADDITION TO HIGH WINDS AND LOW RH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NRN AND NWRN NV. THESE STORMS
   WILL BE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY STORMS...BUT WILL CONTAIN VERY
   STRONG WINDS. FARTHER S...SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE NWD ACROSS WRN AZ AND INTO UT. THIS MOISTURE WILL
   COMBINE WITH THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
   ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN UT LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.
   
   ...SRN AND ERN AZ / WRN NM / SRN CO...
   HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AGAIN FAVOR PLUME
   DOMINATED FIRES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING THROUGH A
   VERY DEEP LAYER WILL PROMOTE THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20
   MPH ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
   
   ...MUCH OF TX...
   IT WILL AGAIN BE VERY HOT OVER MUCH OF TX WITH HIGHS AROUND 100. RH
   LEVELS WILL DIP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT INTO CENTRAL AND SRN TX...AND
   NEAR 10-15 PERCENT OVER WRN TX. SELY WINDS AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL ONLY AVERAGE NEAR 10 MPH...BUT HIGHER GUSTS OF 15-2O
   MAY OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT IN
   LOCALLY DRY AREAS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/13/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 131005
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0505 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ AND SRN UT...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NV...CENTRAL UT...WRN CO AND
   THE AREA IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE EXTREME AREA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
   CO...SERN UT...NERN AZ...NRN NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
   GREAT BASIN AND SW AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND UPPER JET MOVES
   OVER THE AREA. THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE OVER NRN
   AZ...ERN UT...WRN CO AND INTO WRN WY. SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL ALSO OCCUR MAINLY OVER WRN CO...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
   POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NRN NM...NERN AZ AND ERN UT.
   ELSEWHERE...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
   INDUCE STRONG SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS
   ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN AZ AND SRN UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS / LOW RH / SEVERE DROUGHT /
   MDT TO HIGH HAINES
   
   WINDS WILL INCREASE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL JET
   MOVES OVERHEAD. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY
   WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME
   VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE WHICH WILL PROMOTE VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR ONGOING FIRES AND GIVEN SEVERE DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS IN PLACE. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR IN MOST AREAS
   OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR RIDGE
   TOPS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN NV...CENTRAL UT...WRN CO AND THE
   AREA IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE EXTREME AREA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH LOW RH
   
   SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS
   
   OF 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL
   AZ...WRN UT AND WRN NM. FURTHER...RH LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER
   ACROSS NV AND WRN UT GIVEN COOLER AIR NEAR THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL
   ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15 PERCENT. IT WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY HOT
   ACROSS SRN AZ WHERE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
   ONGOING...ALONG WITH VERY LOW RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SRN EXTENT OF
   CRITICAL AREA IN AZ IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
   AND COULD BE EXTENDED FARTHER S IN NEXT OUTLOOK.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
   CO...SERN UT...NERN AZ...NRN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY THUNDERSTORMS...LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS
   
   COOLING ALOFT WITH UPPER TROUGH AS WELL AS WELL AS SWLY UPSLOPE
   WINDS AND STRONG HEATING WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
   DEVELOP MAINLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY
   AND DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS AS A RESULT OF LIGHTNING. MOST OF THE
   ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER CO...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED STRIKES ARE
   EXPECTED OVER FAR NRN NM AND PERHAPS ERN UT/NERN AZ.
   
   ...FAR SRN AZ...CENTRAL AND SRN NM...
   NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST HERE WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
   WEATHER AND SEVERE DROUGHT. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS POINTS
   N...BUT SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS NEAR 15 MPH WILL BE LIKELY WITH
   STRONGER GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. HAINES INDEX WILL BE HIGH...PROMOTING
   PLUME DOMINATION.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/13/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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