Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 190943
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0443 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS
   REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NATION
   TODAY. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
   SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE
   PERIOD...GENERATING MODERATE WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES/INTERMTN REGION. ELSEWHERE
   ACROSS THE NATION...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AS LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF ERN NV...MUCH OF
   UT...NRN AZ/NRN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLE...WRN/CENTRAL CO AND SRN WY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
   OVER 35 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-15 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   AN SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
   TODAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SWLY
   WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/LOW RH READINGS TO
   A GENERATE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   INTERMTN/ROCKIES REGION. THE STRONGEST SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
   OCCUR OVER ERN UT/WRN CO AND SRN WY...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER TROUGH
   AXIS AND WHERE THE GREATEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST DURING
   THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO JUST REACH
   CRITICAL THRESHOLD AS FAR SOUTH AS NRN AZ/NRN NM...AS DEEP MIXING
   SUPPORTS MOMENTUM TRANSFER DESPITE SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS
   THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS...NEAR
   RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS FROM 5-10 PERCENT WILL
   LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE REGION. 
   FURTHER EAST...A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS OF ERN NM
   AND TX/OK PANHANDLES NWD INTO ERN CO WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION...AS SLY WINDS INCREASE TO
   BETWEEN 20-25 MPH AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPTS
   GENERATE MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...ERN CO/ERN NM...
   WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER ERN CO TODAY...AS THE MAIN
   LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
   HOWEVER...LOW RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED AS DEEP
   MIXING OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ON THE SRN EDGE OF
   STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING...HIGH BASED AND INITIALLY DRY TSTMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CO/NM FRONT RANGE.. ANY OF THESE TSTMS
   WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AND LITTLE
   RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
   DRY TSTMS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LIMITED AS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
   TRANSITION TO WETTER TSTMS SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 190946
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UNDER A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
   EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAY TWO. IN THE
   WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...MODERATE WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH...SLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE OVER
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...SUPPORTING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS TO THIS REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...UPPER
   RIDGING ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A
   CONTINUED HEAT WAVE OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS WWD INTO THE DESERT
   SW. GENERALLY LIGHT WLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
   WEST ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS
   UNDER THE PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGING.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS SWD INTO SRN WY...
   IN THE WAKE OF A SFC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE
   OF AN UPPER TROUGH...MODERATE WNWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
   SRN/ERN MT AND WY. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
   THE STRONGEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER SRN/ERN MT. EXPECTED
   DAY ONE RAINFALL OVER MT...AND MARGINALLY LOW RH READINGS OVER WY
   /15-20 PERCENT/ WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE ATTM.
   
   ...ERN NM...WRN TX...
   MODERATE WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT A LOW
   LEVEL JET OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST
   SWLY WINDS /20-30 MPH/ ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WITH
   SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH OVER ERN NM. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE AS A
   RESULT OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH TX AND MOISTURE
   ADVECTION FROM THIS REGION. THE RESULT OF INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
   BE MIN RH READINGS AROUND 20 PERCENT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
   CRITICAL LEVELS. IN ADDITION TO THE MODERATE WINDS AND NEAR CRITICAL
   RH READINGS...ISOLATED-SCT HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LEE TROUGH OVER ERN/CENTRAL NM DURING
   THE AFTERNOON HRS. INITIALLY SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE DRY
   WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AND POTENTIAL FIRE STARTS. BUT INCREASING
   MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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