Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 190943
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS
REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NATION
TODAY. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE
PERIOD...GENERATING MODERATE WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES/INTERMTN REGION. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NATION...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF ERN NV...MUCH OF
UT...NRN AZ/NRN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLE...WRN/CENTRAL CO AND SRN WY...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 35 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-15 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
AN SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TODAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SWLY
WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/LOW RH READINGS TO
A GENERATE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERMTN/ROCKIES REGION. THE STRONGEST SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER ERN UT/WRN CO AND SRN WY...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND WHERE THE GREATEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO JUST REACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLD AS FAR SOUTH AS NRN AZ/NRN NM...AS DEEP MIXING
SUPPORTS MOMENTUM TRANSFER DESPITE SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS
THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS...NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS FROM 5-10 PERCENT WILL
LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE REGION.
FURTHER EAST...A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS OF ERN NM
AND TX/OK PANHANDLES NWD INTO ERN CO WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION...AS SLY WINDS INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 20-25 MPH AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPTS
GENERATE MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT.
...ERN CO/ERN NM...
WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER ERN CO TODAY...AS THE MAIN
LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER...LOW RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED AS DEEP
MIXING OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ON THE SRN EDGE OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING...HIGH BASED AND INITIALLY DRY TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CO/NM FRONT RANGE.. ANY OF THESE TSTMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AND LITTLE
RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
DRY TSTMS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LIMITED AS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION TO WETTER TSTMS SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT.
..CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 190946
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UNDER A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAY TWO. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...MODERATE WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH...SLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE OVER
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...SUPPORTING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THIS REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...UPPER
RIDGING ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED HEAT WAVE OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS WWD INTO THE DESERT
SW. GENERALLY LIGHT WLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEST ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS
UNDER THE PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGING.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS SWD INTO SRN WY...
IN THE WAKE OF A SFC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH...MODERATE WNWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
SRN/ERN MT AND WY. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER SRN/ERN MT. EXPECTED
DAY ONE RAINFALL OVER MT...AND MARGINALLY LOW RH READINGS OVER WY
/15-20 PERCENT/ WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE ATTM.
...ERN NM...WRN TX...
MODERATE WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT A LOW
LEVEL JET OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST
SWLY WINDS /20-30 MPH/ ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH OVER ERN NM. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE AS A
RESULT OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH TX AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THIS REGION. THE RESULT OF INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
BE MIN RH READINGS AROUND 20 PERCENT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. IN ADDITION TO THE MODERATE WINDS AND NEAR CRITICAL
RH READINGS...ISOLATED-SCT HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LEE TROUGH OVER ERN/CENTRAL NM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HRS. INITIALLY SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE DRY
WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AND POTENTIAL FIRE STARTS. BUT INCREASING
MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
..CROSBIE.. 06/19/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...