Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 200915
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0415 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NATION
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODERATE LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTH
   OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. HIGH
   BASED INITIALLY DRY TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FRONT RANGE
   OF ERN CO/ERN AND CENTRAL NM. FURTHER WEST...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SWRN STATES UNDER
   THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY FLAT BUT STRONG UPPER RIDGE. VERY LOW
   RH READINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE TEMPERATURES...BUT SFC WINDS WILL
   GENERALLY BE LIGHT SO NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN NM/FAR SERN CO...THE OK/TX
   PANHANDLE....SWRN KS AND FAR NWRN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
   OVER 35 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-20 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   A LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESIDE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY IN
   RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER
   MIDWEST. MODERATE WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH WERE ALREADY OCCURRING
   EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING
   AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DECREASES AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATE. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASED
   EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING
   WILL AID IN FALLING DEWPTS INTO THE 20S/30S OVER MOST OF THE
   AREA...WITH 40S IN FAR NWRN OK/ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES. VERY WARM
   TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW-MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE FROM THE
   SWRN STATES EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
   IN THE 95-105 DEGREE RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW DEWPTS AND
   MODERATE WINDS TO PRODUCE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WINDS ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...BUT SLOWLY
   COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RECOVERING RH READINGS SHOULD END THE
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT BY AROUND 03Z. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
   RH/WIND THREAT...ISOLATED TO SCT  TSTMS...SOME INITIALLY DRY...ARE
   ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE TROUGH FROM ECENTRAL NM NEWD
   INTO FAR SERN CO/SWRN KS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS
   EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A CRITICAL DRY TSTM THREAT IS NOT
   EXPECTED.
   
   ...SRN WY...
   SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT MODERATE WSWLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE
   UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES PROGRESSES EWD OVER THE REGION.
   DESPITE THE MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED...MIN RH READINGS WILL BE
   MARGINAL /15-20 PERCENT/ AND A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT
   EXPECTED.
   
   ...REMAINDER OF ERN NM...ERN CO AND CENTRAL NM....
   ISOLATED /INITIALLY DRY/ TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF
   ERN CO AGAIN TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH...MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
   CENTRAL/ERN NM AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT
   ANOTHER DAY OF TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EWD INTO THE ERN PLAINS.
   A VERY DEEPLY MIXED/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THAT MOST TSTMS WILL
   INITIALLY BE DRY...WITH A TRANSITION TO WET WITH TIME OVER ERN NM.
   OVERALL COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH THAT A CRITICAL
   DRY TSTM THREAT SHOULD NOT OCCUR.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/20/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200915
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0415 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FOUND TOMORROW ACROSS THE
   NATION. AT THE SFC...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE
   AREA. GENERALLY MODERATE-HIGH RH READINGS WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF
   THE ROCKIES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SWRN
   STATES WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED WWD INTO CA. THE RESULT WILL
   BE A CONTINUATION AND BUILDING OF HOT TEMPERATURES OVER THIS REGION.
   VERY LOW RH READINGS WILL RESULT...BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL
   PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREATS.
   
   ...CENTRAL NM...
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM TSTMS TODAY OVER CENTRAL/ERN NM SHOULD
   SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   CENTRAL NM TOMORROW. AGAIN A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT
   ISOLATED DRY TSTM POTENTIAL. SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
   ERN NM AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTS THAT MOST CONVECTION THAT
   DEVELOPS OR MOVES INTO THIS AREA WILL BE WET.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/20/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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