Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 200915
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0415 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. MODERATE LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTH
OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. HIGH
BASED INITIALLY DRY TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FRONT RANGE
OF ERN CO/ERN AND CENTRAL NM. FURTHER WEST...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SWRN STATES UNDER
THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY FLAT BUT STRONG UPPER RIDGE. VERY LOW
RH READINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE TEMPERATURES...BUT SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT SO NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN NM/FAR SERN CO...THE OK/TX
PANHANDLE....SWRN KS AND FAR NWRN OK...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 35 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-20 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESIDE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. MODERATE WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH WERE ALREADY OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING
AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DECREASES AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATE. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASED
EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL AID IN FALLING DEWPTS INTO THE 20S/30S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH 40S IN FAR NWRN OK/ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW-MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE FROM THE
SWRN STATES EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 95-105 DEGREE RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW DEWPTS AND
MODERATE WINDS TO PRODUCE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...BUT SLOWLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RECOVERING RH READINGS SHOULD END THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT BY AROUND 03Z. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
RH/WIND THREAT...ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS...SOME INITIALLY DRY...ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE TROUGH FROM ECENTRAL NM NEWD
INTO FAR SERN CO/SWRN KS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A CRITICAL DRY TSTM THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED.
...SRN WY...
SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT MODERATE WSWLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES PROGRESSES EWD OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED...MIN RH READINGS WILL BE
MARGINAL /15-20 PERCENT/ AND A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED.
...REMAINDER OF ERN NM...ERN CO AND CENTRAL NM....
ISOLATED /INITIALLY DRY/ TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF
ERN CO AGAIN TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH...MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL/ERN NM AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EWD INTO THE ERN PLAINS.
A VERY DEEPLY MIXED/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THAT MOST TSTMS WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY...WITH A TRANSITION TO WET WITH TIME OVER ERN NM.
OVERALL COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH THAT A CRITICAL
DRY TSTM THREAT SHOULD NOT OCCUR.
..CROSBIE.. 06/20/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 200915
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0415 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FOUND TOMORROW ACROSS THE
NATION. AT THE SFC...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA. GENERALLY MODERATE-HIGH RH READINGS WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SWRN
STATES WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED WWD INTO CA. THE RESULT WILL
BE A CONTINUATION AND BUILDING OF HOT TEMPERATURES OVER THIS REGION.
VERY LOW RH READINGS WILL RESULT...BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREATS.
...CENTRAL NM...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM TSTMS TODAY OVER CENTRAL/ERN NM SHOULD
SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL NM TOMORROW. AGAIN A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED DRY TSTM POTENTIAL. SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
ERN NM AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTS THAT MOST CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS OR MOVES INTO THIS AREA WILL BE WET.
..CROSBIE.. 06/20/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...