Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 260852
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOUR CORNERS INTO SWRN CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE WRN
   CONUS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THERMAL LOW IN CA AND PRESSURE TROUGH
   RUNNING NWD INTO THE PAC NW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT
   PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELY COMPONENT TO THE LOW AND/OR
   MID-LEVEL FLOW...TRANSPORTING INCREASED MOISTURE WWD ACROSS THE
   CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DRY TSTMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ARCING AROUND THE LARGE HIGH FROM PORTIONS OF
   SWRN WY SWD TO NRN AZ AND NWWD ACROSS THE SIERRAS AND MUCH OF NV.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FOUR CORNERS INTO SWRN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY THUNDERSTORMS / GUSTY WINDS
   
   SCATTERED DRY TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN
   ADVANCING PLUME OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE AREA WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUD-FREE THROUGH MIDDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW NEAR-FULL
   INSOLATION AND STRENGTHEN INSTABILITY. COVERAGE OF DRY TSTMS SHOULD
   NOT BE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
   SHORTWAVE AND WEAK STEERING FLOW OF STORMS. HOWEVER...VERY DRY
   CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   HIGH-BASED TSTMS INITIALLY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
   CURRENTLY AROUND A HALF INCH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC DOWNDRAFT WINDS IN
   AND CLOSE TO TSTMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRES.
   
   ...NRN PLATEAU OF AZ/MOST OF ERN UT INTO NWRN CO...
   TO THE W AND N OF THE CRITICAL AREA...A MORE MARGINAL THREAT FOR DRY
   TSTMS EXISTS...WITH EXPECTED COVERAGE TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED. HOWEVER...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
   WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RH THAN IN AREAS FURTHER E.
   
   ...MOST OF NV...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DRY TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
   TODAY...WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL
   RIDGE. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS NRN NV...AIDED BY A
   WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE IN ORE. HOT TEMPERATURES
   AND LOW SUB-CLOUD RH WILL YIELD VERY-HIGH BASED TSTMS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/26/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 260934
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0434 AM CDT MON JUN 26 2006
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE WRN
   CONUS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND IMPULSES CIRCULATING SLOWLY AROUND AND
   WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES W/NWWD ACROSS AZ/NV
   AND THE SIERRAS. THE DRY TSTM THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
   PERIPHERY OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME IN THE GREAT BASIN TO
   THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
   
   ...ERN UT/WRN CO/NRN PLATEAU OF AZ...
   A TRANSITION TO WETTER TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR AS SUB-CLOUD RH WILL
   LIKELY BE GREATER VERSUS MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE IN PART DUE TO
   EXPECTED SHOWER/TSTM EFFECTS FROM MONDAY AND LIGHT ELY FLOW...BOTH
   HELPING TO INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE SUB-CLOUD COLUMN. IN
   ADDITION...GREATER COVERAGE OF TSTMS IS LIKELY AS WELL...WITH
   INCREASED ASCENT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD FROM 
   ORE. DRY TSTMS MAY STILL OCCUR INITIALLY...HOWEVER THE THREAT
   APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO ISSUE A CRITICAL AREA ATTM.
   
   ...MOST OF NV/WRN UT...
   ISOLATED DRY TSTMS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN...EXPANDING EWD INTO WRN
   UT...AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE. VERY
   WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW SUB-CLOUD RH WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED
   TSTMS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY TSTMS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/26/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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