Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 280902 DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV...SWRN UT... ...SYNOPSIS... MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHICH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL THUS PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN...WITH WETTER STORMS ELSEWHERE. TO THE E...NWLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP IT DRY ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN STATES WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS BUT LOW RH. LOWERING PRESSURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL HELP INDUCE STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS FROM W TX INTO WRN KS...BUT SPEEDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF NV...SWRN UT... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY LIGHTNING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SEVERAL AREAS WILL SEE A THREAT FOR LIGHTNING CAUSED FIRE STARTS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DRY STORMS APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL/ERN NV INTO WRN UT WHERE CLOUD BASES WILL BE HIGHER. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NWD ACROSS NV JUST WEST OF UPPER HIGH CENTER...WHILE STORMS OVER UT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THESE ARE AVERAGE EXPECTED STORMS MOTIONS...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD MOVE IN ANY DIRECTION DUE TO VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED DRY THUNDER WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ERN CO LATE TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND WITH STRONG HEATING...A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SERN CO. GIVEN VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS...THEY WILL BE DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS. A GREATER NUMBER OF STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE MTNS OF CENTRAL CO...BUT MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE WET. SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S. RH WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS OVER ERN CO AND WRN KS AND TO AROUND 20-25 PERCENT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. AREAS SUCH AS SRN OK AS WELL AS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH KBDI VALUES. THUS...WHILE THREAT IS NOT CRITICAL...STRONG DRYING TODAY MAY POSE A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE FUELS REMAIN DRY. ..JEWELL.. 06/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 280955 DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2006 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE WRN GREAT BASIN INTO ID AND MT. THIS WILL INCREASE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SHUNT UPPER HIGH CENTER FARTHER S INTO AZ AND NM WITH THUNDERSTORMS...SOME DRY...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES AND WILL CAUSE RH VALUES TO BE VERY LOW BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS. ...UT/WRN CO... THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE INTO OREGON ID AND MT...AND ALSO FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM OF AZ INTO WRN AND NRN NM...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE WET. THE BEST CHANCE AT DRY STORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL UT AND WRN CO WHERE SUB CLOUD RH LAYER WILL BE DRIER. A DRY THUNDER CRITICAL MAY BE ISSUED NEXT DAY 1 ONCE CONFIDENCE IN PRIME DRY THUNDER LOCATION BECOMES MORE EVIDENT. ...PLAINS STATES... IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND DRY ON THU AS SLY WINDS INCREASE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM SRN NEB INTO OK WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH. RH LEVELS WILL DECREASE TO 20-25 PERCENT AT PEAK HEATING FROM WRN ND SWD TO TX. AREAS SUCH AS N TX AS WELL AS ND AND NWRN MN HAVE HAD LITTLE RAINFALL RECENTLY...THUS KBDI VALUES ARE INCREASING. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... WINDS WILL BE WEAKER FROM ERN TX INTO AR/LA/MS/AL/NRN FL...BUT RH WILL BE VERY LOW FROM 25-35 PERCENT. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND STRONG HEATING WILL PRODUCE DEEP MIXING LAYERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN MANY DAYS OF LOW DEWPOINTS...FIRE THREAT LIKELY INCREASING AS FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY. ..JEWELL.. 06/28/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...