Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070855
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 AM CDT FRI JUL 07 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
   SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE WEST. THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
   WEST WILL LEAD TO A WARMING/DRYING TREND OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
   PAC NW/GREAT BASIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
   THE GREAT BASIN.  MID LEVEL /MONSOONAL/ MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES...WHERE SCT-NMRS WET TSTMS WILL
   OCCUR. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
   AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS. MODERATE NWLY WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
   SUPPORT NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GIVEN EXPECTED LOW RH
   READINGS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE MOST OF THE
   ERN HALF OF THE NATION LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
   SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS STATES AHEAD OF THE ROCKIES
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SFC PRESSURES FALL. WARM TEMPERATURES/LOW RH
   READINGS ALONG WITH THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING FIRE DANGER
   OVER THIS REGION.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20-25 MPH OVER ERN MT/FAR WRN ND
   IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE
   WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL LIMIT SFC COOLING...BUT DEWPTS WILL FALL. ATTM IT IS
   ANTICIPATED THAT THE DURATION OF CRITICALLY LOW RH READINGS LESS
   THAN 20 PERCENT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR CRITICALLY LOW RH READINGS
   SHOULD BE BETWEEN 23-02Z. ISOLATED DRY TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN ND...BUT COVERAGE IS
   EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH.
   
   
   ...CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...
   ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...LOW LEVEL HEATING
   IN A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
   THE LEE TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING WEAK VORT MAX /OFF THE CENTRAL CA
   COAST/ TO SUPPORT DRY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH
   RELATIVELY WEAK/LIMITED FORCING...THE COVERAGE OF DRY TSTMS IS
   ANTICIPATED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
   SSELY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
   BETWEEN A DEEPENING SFC LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND A LARGE
   AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GENERALLY
   LOW DEWPTS /45-50 DEG F/ WILL EXIST OVER THE LOWER PLAINS AS A
   RESULT OF SUBSIDENT AIR ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HIGH
   COMBINED WITH ANTECEDENT DRY SOIL CONDITIONS. WARM SFC TEMPERATURES
   IN THE 90S WILL SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS FROM 20-30 PERCENT ALONG AN
   AXIS EXTENDING FROM NCENTRAL TX NWD INTO ERN NEB.
   HOWEVER...RELATIVELY LIGHT SSELY WINDS FROM 10-20 MPH WILL KEEP THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
   
   ...NRN/CENTRAL CA...
   SFC DWPTS OVER MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL CA ARE RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE
   EARLY MORNING HRS /40S/. WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND LIMITED
   MARINE LAYER PRESENT OFFSHORE...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
   ALONG WITH LOW RH READINGS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WELL INLAND AND RH
   READINGS DOWN TO 25 PERCENT IN COASTAL VALLEYS. SUSTAINED WNWLY
   WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT IN FAVORED SEA
   BREEZE AREAS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/07/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 070856
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 AM CDT FRI JUL 07 2006
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY OVER THE WEST
   TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...A DRYING TREND ALONG WITH DIMINISHING
   MONSOONAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   BUILDING RIDGE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
   VERY LOW RH READINGS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR
   CA/WRN GREAT BASIN NWD INTO THE INTERIOR PAC NW. ENOUGH MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
   ISOLATED MAINLY DRY TSTMS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN.
   MEANWHILE... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND
   MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL
   SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE NWLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
   FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH DISPLACED SOMEWHAT ESE OF THE
   DAY ONE EVENT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT. ELSEWHERE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
   OF MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...WITH LOW RH READINGS AND LIGHT WINDS.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   NNWLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
   FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FCST TO MOVE
   OUT OF CANADA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT MIN RH
   READINGS TO ABOVE 25 PERCENT WHICH IS ON THE MARGINS OF A CRITICAL
   THREAT. IF LATER FCSTS INDICATE LESS COOLING BUT SIMILAR SFC WIND
   FIELDS...THAN THIS AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO CRITICAL.
   
   ...CENTRAL/WRN GREAT BASIN...
   THE LEE TROUGH IS FCST TO EXTEND FROM SERN ORE SWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL
   NV. RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
   RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO
   SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY DRY TSTMS. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
   AREA TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING...A CRITICAL
   DRY TSTM THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...CENTRAL/ERN OK AND NRN TX...
   DRY LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPTS MIXING TO BETWEEN 50-55 DEG F DURING THE
   AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL SUPPORT
   ANOTHER DAY OF MIN RH READINGS FROM 20-30 PERCENT. SLY WINDS WILL
   REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH PRECLUDING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...INTERIOR CA...
   AS A RESULT OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT
   TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INLAND AGAIN. HOWEVER IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT
   THE MARINE LAYER /ALBEIT SHALLOW/ SHOULD REACH INTO SOME OF THE
   COASTAL VALLEYS TOMORROW MORNING. WELL INLAND LOW RH READINGS LESS
   THAN 15 PERCENT WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND
   COASTAL RANGES/INTERIOR VALLEYS. SUSTAINED WNWLY WINDS WILL
   GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 MPH PRECLUDING A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/07/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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