Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 090804
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0304 AM CDT SUN JUL 09 2006
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
   MAINTAINING POOL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN
   AND NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
   AREA...WITH A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY
   OF DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE. FARTHER SOUTH...WESTERLY FLOW HAS
   UNDERCUT THE RIDGE PRODUCING A DRYING TREND IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
   
   DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS MOVING SWD FROM CANADA AND INTO THE NRN
   PLAINS... WITH AFTERNOON RH EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 PERCENT OVER
   PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT HOWEVER...AND
   GENERALLY FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.
   
   THE EAST IS DOMINATED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH PRODUCING RATHER TRANQUIL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE ONLY
   EXCEPTION IS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LOW AFTERNOON RH OVER PORTIONS OF
   AL...GA...AND NRN FL.
   
   ...GREAT BASIN/ERN OR/CNTRL ID...
   A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD POOL CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD
   FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD. THE WRN PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE RESIDES OVER
   THIS AREA AND SHOULD BE THE LOCATION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
   AREA...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND MINIMAL ORGANIZED
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE. DUE TO THE ISOLATED THREAT OVER SUCH AN EXTENSIVE AREA...A
   CRITICAL AREA FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
   
   ...SRN AL/SRN GA/NRN FL...
   CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST ARE SUCH THAT AFTERNOON RH WILL FALL TO
   25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS SRN AL...SRN GA...AND NRN FL. THE SURFACE
   RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON TURNING THE FLOW TO MORE
   SELY BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH
   THE PERIOD. RH SHOULD RECOVER VERY QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 07/09/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 090914
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0414 AM CDT SUN JUL 09 2006
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE DURING THE PERIOD WITH ERODING 
   WRN RIDGE BEING REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
   LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. WESTERLY
   COMPONENT OF MID LEVEL FLOW ACCELERATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
   WEST...PUSHING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND LEADING TO A
   TRANSITION PERIOD WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A
   LARGE AREA OF DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
   
   THE FLOW IN THE EAST BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON MONDAY...BUT DRY AIR
   CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE DEEP SOUTH FOR ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY
   LOW AFTERNOON RH. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST IS UNDER A
   TRANQUIL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND THE
   POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL BUT THE DEEP SOUTH AND
   PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
   
   ...NM/UT/ERN NV/ERN ID/CNTRL MT...
   AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NWRN STATES...THE MID LEVEL
   AIRMASS DRIES BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FOR THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO CNTRL MT.
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE
   DAY...PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO CNTRL MT AND SRN ID BY
   MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING
   FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE DRY WITH GUSTY
   SURFACE WINDS. IN THE GREAT BASIN...DRY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
   MORE ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS NO LARGE
   SCALE FORCING EXISTS TO HELP ORGANIZE DIURNAL CONVECTION.
   HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW MOVES
   THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AN INCREASE IN DRY
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG AND EAST OF
   THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN NM.
   
   ...NERN CA/NWRN NV...
   INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DRIER PACIFIC
   AIR LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN CA AND
   NWRN NV MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS BELOW ONE THIRD
   OF AN INCH...WHILE AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS BECOME SWLY AT 15 TO 25
   MPH. WARM TEMPERATURES RESULT IN MINIMUM RH BETWEEN 10 TO 15
   PERCENT...PRODUCING A PERIOD OF NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ...SRN AL/SRN GA/NRN FL...
   ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON RH SHOULD INCREASE 3 TO 5 PERCENT MONDAY AS
   COMPARED TO SUNDAY...MINIMUM VALUES WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND 30 TO
   35 PERCENT. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN 10 MPH AND GENERALLY FROM
   THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A QUICK RH RECOVERY OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY AFTER
   SUNSET.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 07/09/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home