Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 110958
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 AM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN CA/SERN OR/NWRN NV/EXTREME
SWRN ID...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD FROM NERN MT...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED DRY TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION
AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN CA/SERN OR/NWRN NV/EXTREME SWRN
ID...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS
W/SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW. 25 TO 35 MPH OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING. THE
DURATION OF WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 MPH SHOULD LAST FOR JUST A FEW
HOURS...AS MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S UNDER
ALMOST FULL INSOLATION...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT.
...NERN NV/MOST OF SRN ID/NWRN UT...
FURTHER E OF THE CRITICAL AREA...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED DRY TSTMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MONDAY
EVENING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATED A PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V
PROFILE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. TSTMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. A WEAK IMPULSE OVER ERN NV/WRN
UT ATTM...WILL LIKELY AID IN SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE IN ERN UT/WRN
CO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THIS IMPULSE SHOULD HELP
LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS NERN NV/SRN ID/NWRN UT.
..GRAMS.. 07/11/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 111000
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 AM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WITH
IMPULSES EXPECTED TO ROTATE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS.
IN RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN
STRENGTHING SURFACE WINDS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE WLY FLOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY.
...SNAKE RIVER VALLEY OF ID/NERN NV/NWRN UT...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CONDITIONS APPROACHING CRITICAL ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS SEASONALLY DRY CONDITIONS COINCIDE WITH MODEST WINDS.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY...AS AN IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NE OF THE AREA
INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE STRONGER WINDS
FROM DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
AROUND SUNSET. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...RH VALUES
SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.
...ERN MT/FAR WRN ND...
A DRY TSTM THREAT MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE
AREA...PRECLUDES A CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE ATTM. POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
POSSIBLE CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ADDS
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER DRY TSTMS CAN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF FORCED
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE...AND ALONG A LEE SURFACE PRESSURE
TROUGH. IF TEMPERATURES CAN WARM TO AROUND 100 DEGREES PER PRESENT
FORECASTS...A DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH STRONG
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC SOUNDINGS.
...WRN SD...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE-SURFACE TROUGH AND APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES AND THEIR IMPACT ON SURFACE WINDS...PRECLUDES A
CRITICAL THREAT ISSUANCE ATTM. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AROUND 100 DEGREES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...RH
VALUES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
..GRAMS.. 07/11/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...