Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 110958
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 AM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN CA/SERN OR/NWRN NV/EXTREME
   SWRN ID...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD FROM NERN MT...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
   MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TODAY. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL
   INCREASE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
   GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED DRY TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION
   AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN CA/SERN OR/NWRN NV/EXTREME SWRN
   ID...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS
   
   W/SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
   THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW. 25 TO 35 MPH OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
   SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON...AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING. THE
   DURATION OF WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 MPH SHOULD LAST FOR JUST A FEW
   HOURS...AS MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH MIDDAY.
   HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S UNDER
   ALMOST FULL INSOLATION...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
   PERCENT.
   
   ...NERN NV/MOST OF SRN ID/NWRN UT...
   FURTHER E OF THE CRITICAL AREA...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED DRY TSTMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MONDAY
   EVENING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATED A PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V
   PROFILE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. TSTMS ARE ONCE
   AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
   DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. A WEAK IMPULSE OVER ERN NV/WRN
   UT ATTM...WILL LIKELY AID IN SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE IN ERN UT/WRN
   CO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THIS IMPULSE SHOULD HELP
   LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS NERN NV/SRN ID/NWRN UT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/11/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 111000
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0500 AM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WITH
   IMPULSES EXPECTED TO ROTATE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS.
   IN RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN
   HIGH PLAINS. AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN
   STRENGTHING SURFACE WINDS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE WLY FLOW
   WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH DRY
   CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY.
   
   ...SNAKE RIVER VALLEY OF ID/NERN NV/NWRN UT...
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CONDITIONS APPROACHING CRITICAL ON WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON...AS SEASONALLY DRY CONDITIONS COINCIDE WITH MODEST WINDS.
   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DECREASE THROUGH
   THE DAY...AS AN IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NE OF THE AREA
   INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE STRONGER WINDS
   FROM DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
   RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
   AROUND SUNSET. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...RH VALUES
   SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...ERN MT/FAR WRN ND...
   A DRY TSTM THREAT MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME
   UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE
   AREA...PRECLUDES A CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE ATTM. POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
   POSSIBLE CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ADDS
   ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER DRY TSTMS CAN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF FORCED
   ASCENT AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE...AND ALONG A LEE SURFACE PRESSURE
   TROUGH. IF TEMPERATURES CAN WARM TO AROUND 100 DEGREES PER PRESENT
   FORECASTS...A DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH STRONG
   INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC SOUNDINGS.
   
   ...WRN SD...
   THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE IN
   RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE-SURFACE TROUGH AND APPROACHING
   MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF
   THESE FEATURES AND THEIR IMPACT ON SURFACE WINDS...PRECLUDES A
   CRITICAL THREAT ISSUANCE ATTM. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH
   AROUND 100 DEGREES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...RH
   VALUES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/11/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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