Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 120911
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0411 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2006
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN MT/NERN WY...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WRN SD...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN UT/SRN NV...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW.
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A THREAT FOR DRY TSTMS.
   SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN NERN MT...WITH AN INCREASING
   PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. FURTHER WEST...MODERATE
   MID-LEVEL W/SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
   REGION...WITH LOCALIZED CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN MT/NERN WY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY THUNDERSTORMS / GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
   
   A DRY TSTM EVENT APPEARS LIKELY AS A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE GREAT SALT
   LAKE MOVES NEWD TODAY. THIS IMPULSE WILL HELP INITIATE SCATTERED
   TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN MT/NERN WY PLAINS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
   EVENING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN THE
   LOW-LEVELS. ELEVATED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS LIKELY FURTHER
   SATURATED THE MID-LEVELS. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD SERVE TO CREATE
   STRONGLY INVERTED-V TYPE PROFILES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S. WITH THE TIMING OF THE IMPULSE
   OCCURRING AROUND PEAK HEATING...MUCH OF THE INITIAL TSTM ACTIVITY
   WILL LIKELY BE DRY.  WETTING RAINS WILL BE MORE LIKELY ONCE OUTFLOW
   WINDS COOL THE LOW-LEVELS AND STORM COVERAGE INCREASES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF WRN SD...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   A NARROW AXIS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF WRN SD. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD
   TO STRENGTHING WINDS TO THE E OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE
   SD/WY/MT BORDER.  IN ADDITION...HOT TEMPERATURES /AROUND 100
   DEGREES/ WILL CREATE VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FURTHER
   ENHANCING MIXING POTENTIAL WITH A 20 TO 30 MPH LOW-LEVEL JET
   OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST
   24 HOURS...THESE SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THIS
   AFTERNOON. RH VALUES SHOULD REACH 15 TO 20 PERCENT. ISOLATED TO
   SCATTERED DRY TSTMS MAY ALSO OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING...AS STORMS
   INITIATE ALONG THE PRESSURE TROUGH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SWRN UT/SRN NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / VERY LOW RH
   
   A LOCALIZED CRITICAL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS AN AREA OF
   ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVES NEWD FROM THE CA DESERTS INTO PORTIONS
   OF WRN UT/SRN NV. A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
   PLACE...AND WITH FULL INSOLATION TODAY...VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL HELP TO MIX MODERATE WINDS TOWARDS THE
   SURFACE...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
   TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE 90S
   TO AROUND 100 IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO
   BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...NRN NV/SERN OR/NERN CA...
   MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION...HOWEVER
   SPEEDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER THAN TUESDAY. SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH. WITH TEMPERATURES
   WARMING INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15
   PERCENT.
   
   ...SWRN WY...
   SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVES NEWD
   ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20
   MPH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
   THE 80S...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/12/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120952
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0452 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2006
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN MT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD PAC NW TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS
   NEWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE WLY FLOW WILL OCCUR BEHIND
   THIS SHORTWAVE...LEADING TO STRENGTHENING WINDS E OF THE ROCKIES IN
   MT. WITH THE TROUGH WEAKENING...MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RECEDE
   NWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN MT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH
   
   DOWNSLOPE WLY WINDS SHOULD BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING...AS A
   SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE OF THE AREA INTO CANADA. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
   MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING...SPEEDS SHOULD
   STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL THREAT DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS SHOULD BE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
   FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTED TSTM ACTIVITY ON DAY
   1 SHOULD LEAVE RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY 2.
   HOWEVER...THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUFFICIENTLY DRY THE LOW-LEVELS
   WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S. AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S...RH VALUES WILL DROP
   TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
   
   ...NWRN NV/SERN OR/NERN CA...
   WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S LEADING TO RH VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15
   PERCENT. MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER AS THE PACIFIC NW
   TROUGH WEAKENS. AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 TO
   15 MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/12/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home