Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 130852
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN MT/FAR SWRN ND/FAR NWRN SD...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING ERN MT THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE EWD INTO
   THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
   THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO PORTIONS
   OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN
   DESERTS WILL EXPAND NWD...PUSHING STRONGER WLY FLOW NWD IN THE GREAT
   BASIN REGION.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN MT/FAR SWRN ND/FAR NWRN SD...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
   
   DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AS A
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES E OF THE
   AREA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONGEST FROM LATE
   THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO THE
   PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
   AND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS RAISED SURFACE
   DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
   PASSAGE WILL HELP DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY
   MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY
   /HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S TO MID 90S/...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 15
   TO 20 PERCENT.
   
   ...NWRN NV/SERN OR/FAR NERN CA...
   WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NE OF THE SIERRAS...WITH
   TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S TO MID 90S AND RH VALUES AROUND 10
   PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOWER
   COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS NWD FROM THE SWRN DESERTS.
   THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MODEST AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
   MPH.
   
   ...SRN CA COASTAL RANGE NEWD INTO SRN NV/SWRN UT...
   A HOT AND VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   RIDGING EXPANDS NWD. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN WINDS ACROSS THE
   SWRN UT/SRN NV AREA FROM WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
   RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH LOCAL TERRAIN-INDUCED ENHANCEMENTS.
   TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S TO AROUND 110 WITH MIN RH VALUES
   OF 3 TO 10 PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/13/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 130946
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
   BRING VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SRN CA INTO THE
   GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW WILL PRECLUDE A WIND-DRIVEN FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT IN THIS REGION AND ELSEWHERE IN THE SRN CONUS.
   STRONGER ZONAL FLOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NRN CONUS...WITH A
   WEAK IMPULSE POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE NRN ROCKIES.
   
   ...N-CNTRL MT...
   A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
   GRAZE THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THIS
   IMPULSE...WHICH WILL BE CRUCIAL TO WHETHER STRONG WINDS CAN DEVELOP
   NEAR PEAK HEATING. A FEW HIGH-BASED TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE...WHICH COULD ALSO YIELD GUSTY OUTFLOW
   WINDS. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES BEING ABLE TO REACH
   THE LOWER 90S WITH RH VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A CRITICAL THREAT IF STRONG WINDS DO
   OCCUR.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/13/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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