Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 140834
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
   OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN
   ANCHORED ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS...EXPANDING NWD IN THE WAKE OF THE
   TROUGH. HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR
   SRN CA INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN...BUT WITH WEAK FLOW DUE TO
   PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH. STRONGER WLYS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NRN
   CONUS...WITH WEAK IMPULSES INDUCING NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CNTRL MT ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...
   A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NW AROUND MIDDAY...GRAZING
   NWRN MT AROUND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP SUSTAIN
   MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
   HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL FOR
   WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS
   SHOULD REACH 20 MPH FOR A BRIEF TIME IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
   TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...AND RH
   VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
   
   ...SERN OR/NWRN NV...
   ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...HOT AND
   VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD N OF THE SIERRAS TODAY. THIS AREA
   WILL BE ON THE SRN FRINGE OF MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND 20 MPH.
   VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS TO AROUND 15 MPH
   DURING PEAK HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH
   RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 6 TO 12 PERCENT.
   
   ...NWRN NM ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
   ISOLATED DRY TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN A WEAK UPSLOPE
   FLOW REGIME. THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE OF GREATER LOW/MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE TO THE SE. A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP AS
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH THE 90S AND DEW POINTS MIX INTO THE UPPER
   20S AND 30S. ALTHOUGH STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW WITH WEAK WINDS
   ALOFT...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF TSTMS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/14/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 140945
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S-CNTRL SD/CNTRL NEB/FAR NWRN
   KS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE SWRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH SHOULD MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD...AND
   BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE NRN CA COAST INTO THE
   NRN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE FURTHER E...WILL
   GRAZE THE FAR NRN PLAINS...INDUCING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
   HOT...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST E OF THE
   TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - S-CNTRL SD/CNTRL NEB/FAR NWRN KS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: HOT TEMPERATURES / LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS /
   LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON JUST TO THE E
   OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKOTAS
   INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. THIS AREA SHOULD BE OPTIMALLY ALIGNED WITH
   LOWER MOISTURE WEST...AND STRONGER WINDS EAST. A STRENGTHENING
   PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED
   WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE CRITICAL AREA. SURFACE DEW
   POINTS SHOULD MIX OUT TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FROM WEST TO EAST.
   HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 100 TO 110
   DEGREES...SUPPORTING RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN MT INTO SWRN ND/WRN SD...
   TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
   OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...JUST AFTER
   TROUGH PASSAGE. THE LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO HELP MITIGATE
   STRONGER WINDS. NEVERTHELESS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH SHOULD
   OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING. A HOT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN
   PLACE...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 AND RH VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15
   PERCENT. FURTHER W...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY HELP PRODUCE DRY
   TSTMS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS CNTRL MT. A DEEP
   SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS FORECAST WITH LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT
   DEPRESSIONS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED ATTM. 
   
   ...FAR NERN CA/SERN OR/NRN NV...
   THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY PRODUCE WINDS APPROACHING
   20 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS DIFFER WITH
   RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS...PRECLUDING A
   CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE ATTM. IF STRONGER WINDS DO OCCUR...A HOT AND
   DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
   90S AND RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT.  
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS...
   A FEW DRY TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
   SLOWLY INCREASE IN THIS REGION. THE CURRENT LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
   REMAIN QUITE WARM AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP WITH AN
   INVERTED-V STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE OF TSTMS IS LIKELY
   TO BE SUPPRESSED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/14/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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