Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 151016
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 AM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN INTENSE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
   NATION...CENTERED OVER COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURE GRADIENT
   WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...CAUSING STRONG WINDS AND
   CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. FARTHER WEST...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NRN CA AND INTO WRN MT...HELPING
   TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. THESE
   STORMS...HOWEVER ISOLATED...MAY EXTEND EWD INTO ERN MT OVERNIGHT
   WITH ERRATIC WINDS.
   
   ELSEWHERE...PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
   KEEP FIRE THREAT HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW...WHERE SIGNIFICANT
   AFTERNOON FIRE GROWTH WILL OCCUR DESPITE WEAK LARGE SCALE WIND
   FIELDS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: EXTREME HEAT / VERY LOW RH / STRONG AND GUSTY
   WINDS
   
   IT WILL BE VERY HOT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY INCLUDING MUCH OF
   SD...NEB...SERN ND AND WRN MN. WINDS WILL INCREASE DUE TO STRONG
   THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH
   WILL BE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF NEBRASKA AS WELL AS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
   ERN SD AND WRN MN...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH LIKELY OVER NRN NEBRASKA
   INTO SD. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER OVER ND...BUT WILL BE
   SHIFTING FROM SWLY TO WLY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE FIRE HAZARD.
   
   TEMPERATURES WILL REACH EXTREME LEVELS ACROSS NEBRASKA CENTRAL/WRN
   SD/ND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 105-110 COMMON. RH LEVELS WILL BE
   CORRESPONDINGLY LOW AND BELOW 10 PERCENT.  FARTHER E INTO ERN SD AND
   WRN MN...RH WILL BE HIGHER BUT STILL WILL DIP INTO THE 20 PERCENT
   RANGE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES OF 95-100 F.
   
   IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
   THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER ERN SD INTO NRN MN IF EXTREME HEAT CAN MIX
   OUT CAPPING INVERSION. SHOULD ISOLATED STORMS ERUPT ALONG THE
   DRYLINE...THEY WOULD CONTAIN VERY GUSTY WINDS. CHANCE OF A STORM IS
   AROUND 10 PERCENT.
   
   ...ERN MT...WRN ND AND SD...NERN WY INCLUDING THE BLACK HILLS...
   MANY FIRES ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION...AND THERE WILL BE A HIGH
   LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE GROWTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
   HOURS...ALTHOUGH WEAK OVERALL WIND SPEEDS PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A
   LARGE-SCALE CRITICAL FIRE AREA.
   
   IT WILL BE EXTREMELY HOT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
   EXCESS OF 105 F. A HIGH HAINES INDEX WILL EXIST DUE TO THE VERY HOT
   AND DRY AIR MASS. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH
   OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO SEVERE
   TURBULENCE AND MIXING BY THERMALS.
   
   LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN STRONG AND
   ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STORMS WOULD
   BE AFTER 03Z OR 9PM MDT.
   
   ...SRN CALIFORNIA INTO NRN AZ AND THE GREAT BASIN...
   PRESENCE OF RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR PLUME
   DOMINATED FIRES BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING WILL CAUSE
   MIXING THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER WITH A HIGH HAINES INDEX. ALTHOUGH
   AREA WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WINDS COULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY IN THE
   VICINITY OF ONGOING FIRES ONCE VERTICAL PLUME GROWTH INTENSIFIES
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...NERN ID INTO WRN MT...
   ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
   AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RACES EWD OUT OF NRN
   CA AND INTO WRN MT. LOW MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE THE LIMITING
   FACTOR...BUT STRONG HEATING...FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND
   INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
   DEVELOP. ANY STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/15/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 151005
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0505 AM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN MT...WRN ND AND SD...NWRN
   NEB...ERN WY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF MT AND
   INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
   MOVE SWD THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS SHIFTING WINDS TO NWLY...ALTHOUGH
   IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY PRODUCING ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE
   CONDITIONS FROM ERN MT INTO NRN NEB. SURFACE PRESSURES WILL LOWER
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...WITH HOT SLY FLOW
   FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
   
   MEANWHILE...HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
   WRN STATES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PLUME DOMINATED FIRES. A WEAK
   DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   DRY STORMS TO SHIFT FARTHER N AND WWD INTO THE MTNS OF NRN AZ AND
   SRN CA....BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AZ
   WHERE STORMS WILL BE WET.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN MT...WRN ND AND SD...NWRN
   NEB...ERN WY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: INCREASED NWLY WINDS...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
   
   A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG SWD INTO SRN SD AND WRN NEB ON SUNDAY...WITH
   ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASED
   NWLY WINDS. SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY ALONG
   WITH RH NEAR 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT WITH
   HIGHS OF 95-105 F. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MDT TO HIGH HAINES INDEX
   WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
   CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...SRN CA...GREAT BASIN...NRN AZ...SRN ID...WY AND WRN CO...
   A HOT AND DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY BENEATH UPPER RIDGE.
   AGAIN...PLUME DOMINATED FIRES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON ONCE DEEP MIXING LAYERS ARE ESTABLISHED. THERE IS A CHANCE
   OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MTNS OF SRN CA AS MOISTURE
   INCREASES FROM THE E.  HOWEVER...POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF ANY LIGHTNING
   STRIKES APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...CENTRAL WI INTO LOWER MI...
   A FETCH OF VERY HOT AIR WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS AROUND A
   SURFACE HIGH AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION
   SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HOT TEMPERATURES INTO WI AND MI...WITH
   RH LEVELS DROPPING INTO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. SWLY WINDS OF 15-20
   MPH WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME AREAS INCLUDING CENTRAL WI
   HAVE HAD LITTLE RAIN RECENTLY...THUS...AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER WILL
   BE LIKELY DESPITE CURRENT FORECAST OF MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/15/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home