Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 170859
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0359 AM CDT MON JUL 17 2006
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IT WILL REMAIN HOT OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH UPPER RIDGE
   CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER JET
   WILL REMAIN ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WITH TWO UPPER TROUGHS
   OF NOTE.  THE FIRST WILL DIP INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES
   TODAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN ID INTO WRN MT.
   THE SECOND AND MORE POWERFUL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE GREAT
   LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD
   FRONT. AN INTRUSION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL ALLOW
   FOR RELATIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS AND A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN WIND
   SPEEDS.
   
   MEANWHILE...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH OVER MUCH
   OF WRN CO AND NRN AZ...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO SRN CA AND
   SRN UT. SOME OF THE STORMS OVER NRN AZ AND SRN UT WILL BE DRY.
   FARTHER N...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL OCCUR FROM THE
   YELLOWSTONE AREA EWD ACROSS SRN MT AND NRN WY...WITH LITTLE RAIN.
   
   ...NRN ID/WRN AND SRN MT/NWRN WY...
   A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ID INTO NWRN MT
   TODAY...WITH WLY WINDS NEAR 15 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL
   INCREASE FIRE DANGER GIVEN MIN RH WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT ALTHOUGH
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL WITH A LOW TO MDT
   HAINES.
   
   FARTHER S INTO E-CNTRL ID...WRN MT AND NWRN WY...WINDS WILL BE
   WEAKER...BUT LOCALLY GUSTY. MDT HAINES AND CONTINUED HOT
   TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR LATE AFTERNOON FIRE GROWTH WITH EXISTING
   LARGE FIRES. ALSO...MULTIPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRED ON
   SUNDAY...WHICH MAY HAVE SPARKED NEW FIRES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS SWRN
   MT AND NWRN WY NEAR YELLOWSTONE. EXPECTED COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT
   A CRITICAL ISSUANCE HOWEVER.
   
   ...SERN MT/ERN WY/WRN SD AND NEB...
   TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN ABOUT 10 DEGREES AS AN AREA OF HIGH
   PRESSURE SHIFTS SEWD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A NELY
   DIRECTION TO SELY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS PRESSURES FALL ON THE HIGH
   PLAINS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...RH WILL FALL INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT
   RANGE WITH SELY WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 10-15 MPH OVER SERN MT TO
   15-20 MPH OVER WRN NEB AND ERN WY. THUS...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS
   WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...SRN UT/NRN AZ...
   MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT SLOWLY NWD...INCREASING
   THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO SRN UT. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE
   WET OVER AZ...BUT THEY WILL BE A MIXTURE OF DRY AND WET ON NRN
   FRINGE OF MOISTURE...NAMELY ACROSS THE MTNS OF SRN UT. GIVEN A
   CONTINUATION OF HOT WEATHER AND LOW SURFACE RH...A FEW STARTS DUE TO
   LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL MAXIMIZE CHANCE OF
   RAINFALL ACCUMULATION...HOWEVER LITTLE THAT MAY BE.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED OVER SRN CA...DUE TO ELY WINDS. A FEW
   STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE SAWTOOTH COMPLEX SUN NIGHT...WITH MULTIPLE
   LIGHTNING STRIKES.  IT WILL BECOME HOT ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH MID AND
   HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS MAY HAMPER HEATING SOMEWHAT. THE INCREASE IN
   MOISTURE WILL RAISE STORM CHANCES...WITH ISOLATED STORMS LIKELY TO
   DEVELOP OVER THE DESERTS AND PERHAPS OVER THE COASTAL RANGE. GUSTY
   WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH STORMS AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE WEST.
   
   ...SRN OK INTO NRN AND NW TX...
   IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY HOT WITH HIGH TEMPS 100-105. RH WILL NEAR
   CRITICALLY LOW LEVELS NEAR 20 PERCENT...WHILE SLY WINDS BLOW AT
   AROUND 10 MPH. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST SEVERAL
   WEEKS...THUS FUELS CONTINUE TO CURE WITH INCREASING KBDI VALUES OF
   600-700.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/17/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 171008
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0508 AM CDT MON JUL 17 2006
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN MT...CNTRL AND NRN WY...ERN
   ID...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH A
   SURFACE COOL FRONT PASSAGE. INCREASED WLY WINDS ALONG WITH CONTINUED
   LOW RH WILL CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS FROM THE UPPER SNAKE
   RIVER VALLEY OF ID TO ERN MT AND WY.  FARTHER E...A STRONG PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER THE PLAINS...WITH VERY STRONG WIND AND
   MARGINALLY LOW RH. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE
   EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF SD LATE. OUT WEST...MONSOONAL TYPE
   STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...WITH MOSTLY WET
   STORMS MOVING INTO ERN NV AND UT. EXTREME HEAT WILL CONTINUE IN THE
   CENTRAL CA VALLEYS...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY AFTERNOON WIND AND LOW RH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN MT...CNTRL AND NRN WY...ERN
   ID...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOCALLY STRONG WLY WINDS...LOW RH...ERRATIC
   THUNDERSTORM WINDS...MDT TO HIGH HAINES
   
   A STRONG UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH WLY
   SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. RH
   WILL LOWER TO AROUND 15-20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON WITH A MDT TO HIGH
   HAINES INDEX SRN AND ERN AREAS. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL FORM OVER SRN MT AND NRN WY. WHILE THESE MAY BE A MIXTURE OF
   WET AND DRY STORMS...THEY WILL CONTAIN VERY GUSTY WINDS WHICH COULD
   PROVE HAZARDOUS AROUND ONGOING FIRES.
   
   ...CENTRAL AND WRN SD INTO NWRN NEB...
   NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DUE MAINLY TO VERY STRONG WINDS.
   A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
   TO DEVELOP. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...THEREFORE...IT
   APPEARS RH LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15-25 PERCENT. ALSO...THERE IS A
   GOOD CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER SD LATE IN THE DAY AS
   STORMS DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE FRONT AND MOVE SEWD. DEPENDING UPON
   MODEL PRECIPITATION AND RH TRENDS...PORTIONS OF SD AND NEB COULD BE
   UPGRADED TO CRITICAL IN NEXT OUTLOOK.
   
   ...SRN AND ERN NV...UT...SRN WY...
   INCREASING MOISTURE WILL CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO FORM
   OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER SRN AND ERN NV AS WELL AS OVER THE MTNS
   OF UT. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE WET DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
   VALUES IN EXCESS OF 0.75 INCH...BUT WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND
   LIGHTNING.
   
   ...CENTRAL VALLEYS OF INTERIOR CA AND NWRN NV...
   IT WILL BE VERY HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS OF 100-106 IN GENERAL. THE
   VERY HOT CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH LOW RH OF 10-20 PERCENT WILL ALLOW
   FOR A HIGH HAINES INDEX...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING FIRES TO BECOME
   PLUME DOMINATED BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT
   TIMES...BUT LESS THAN 20 MPH.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   RH LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE DUE TO PERSISTENT ELY FLOW...WITH
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE
   STORMS WILL CONTAIN RAIN...BUT ALSO GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY HAMPER
   FIRE CONTROL EFFORTS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/17/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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