Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 180858
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN ID...CENTRAL AND ERN
   MT...CENTRAL AND NRN WY...WRN DAKOTAS/NEB....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER JET WILL SINK SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...WITH
   SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT MOVING OUT OF ERN MT/WY INTO THE WRN
   DAKOTAS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...STRONG SLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
   OF THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL ND/SD/NEB WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT.
   ISOLATED WET AND DRY STORMS ARE LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS SRN
   MT.
   
   ELSEWHERE...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWWD ACROSS
   THE GREAT BASIN...WITH BOTH WET AND DRY STORMS ACROSS NV AND WRN UT.
   IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...FROM CA EWD INTO THE
   PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN ID...CENTRAL AND ERN
   MT...CENTRAL AND NRN WY...WRN DAKOTAS/NEB....
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY AND SHIFTING WINDS WITH FRONT--MDT TO HIGH
   HAINES--A FEW DRY STORMS
   
   A STRONG UPPER JET WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AND WILL HELP
   PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVER A LARGE AREA. A SURFACE FRONT
   WILL STRETCH FROM ERN MT INTO NRN WY THIS MORNING...AND WILL MOVE
   EWD INTO WRN DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL WY THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG WIND
   SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...FROM SOUTH AT 15-20 MPH TO
   WNWLY AT 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FARTHER W BEHIND THE
   FRONT...WLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY ARE LIKELY...FROM SERN ID
   INTO WRN MT AND ACROSS WY. RH LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 10-15
   PERCENT RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER
   100F FROM ERN WY INTO WRN DAKOTAS AND NEB. THESE WARM AND DRY
   CONDITIONS MAY HELP ANY NEW FIRES...POSSIBLY STARTED BY LIGHTNING
   THAT MOVED ACROSS MT LAST NIGHT...TO GROW.
   
   ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE MTNS
   OF SRN MT DUE TO WNWLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG HEATING. STRONG WINDS
   ALOFT WILL CARRY THESE STORMS QUICKLY TO THE E AT 30-40
   MPH...MINIMIZING CHANCES OF RAIN. FARTHER E ALONG THE FRONT...THERE
   IS A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY. THESE
   STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
   
   ...ERN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN MN...
   LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN
   THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS. RH
   LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 25-30 PERCENT WHICH WOULD BE MARGINAL
   FOR A CRITICAL ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED LITTLE
   PRECIPITATION RECENTLY...THUS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE
   ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...NV...WRN UT...CA SIERRA...
   ISOLATED STORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SIERRA WITH SCATTERED STORMS
   INTO ERN NV AND UT. WETTING RAINS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN
   SIERRA INTO SRN NV AND UT...BUT STORMS WILL BE MORE DRY FARTHER N
   INTO CENTRAL AND ERN NV AS WELL AS NRN AND WRN UT...BUT MORE
   ISOLATED AS WELL. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
   WILL OCCUR.
   
   ...SRN OK AND NRN/NWRN TX...
   IT WILL AGAIN BE EXTREMELY HOT TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
   105-110 F. RH WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S AT PEAK
   HEATING...WITH SLY WINDS OF 5-10 MPH. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE
   LIGHT...A HIGH HAINES INDEX COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DROUGHT WILL
   INCREASE FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/18/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 181000
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0500 AM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NWRN OK...NERN TX PANHANDLE..CNTRL
   KS/NEB...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS WITH
   UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...AND LOW
   AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
   EXTREMELY HOT CONDITIONS WITH LOW RH AND HIGH WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT. OUT WEST...SCATTERED MONSOONAL STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER
   THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND GREAT BASIN...WITH SOME STORMS DRY. IT
   WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS DUE TO
   COLD FRONT PASSAGE BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH A MARGINAL FIRE
   THREAT DUE TO LOW RH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NWRN OK...NERN TX PANHANDLE..CNTRL
   KS/NEB...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: EXTREME HEAT...HIGH WINDS...LOW RH
   
   UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
   CONTINUATION OF EXTREMELY HOT TEMPERATURES OF 105-110 DEGREES. WINDS
   WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
   THERMAL LOW OVER ERN CO DEEPENS. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ARE STILL IN
   GREENUP...SIGNIFICANT FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST IN AREAS THAT HAVE
   RELATIVELY DRY FUELS.
   
   ...ERN MT/WY...DAKOTAS AND WRN NEB...
   A CONTINUATION OF WARM...DRY...AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
   KEEP FIRE THREAT HIGH BUT LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAY. IN A POST FRONTAL
   AIR MASS...STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN
   BREAK 100 DEGREES INTO CENTRAL SD AND WRN NEB...WITH HIGHS ABOVE 90
   ELSEWHERE. RH WILL BE UP TODAY...RANGING FROM 20-30 PERCENT OVER ND
   AND CENTRAL SD...TO 15-20 PERCENT ERN MT/WY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
   REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 MPH...ALTHOUGH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY
   ESPECIALLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WRN NEB.
   
   ...SIERRA INTO NV AND WRN UT...
   SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM WITH AMPLE PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING.
   MOISTURE VALUES ALONG WITH FORECAST SLOW STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST
   STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY WET. NEVERTHELESS...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
   WILL OCCUR WITH MOST STORMS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS NEAR ONGOING FIRES.
   
   ...SRN AND WRN OK...CENTRAL AND NRN TX...AR...
   IT WILL BE VERY HOT WITH HIGHS NEAR 105 COMMON. FIRE THREAT WILL BE
   MITIGATED BY GENERALLY WEAK WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER AR AND SERN OK.
   HOWEVER...RECENT LACK OF RAINFALL SUGGESTS ENHANCED THREAT OF FIRES
   EVEN IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER S AND W...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND
   NEAR 15 MPH. THIS...COMBINED WITH DROUGHT AND RH OF 20-30 PERCENT
   WILL MAKE FORE RELATIVELY HIGH FIRE THREAT BY AFTERNOON.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/18/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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