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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 150930 DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0430 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NV/SERN ID/NRN UT/WRN WY/SWRN MT... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN ND/SD/WRN NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE AN IMPULSE LIFTING NE ACROSS NCNTRL NV...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AND DRY LIGHTNING OCCURRING OVER SRN ID/NRN UT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TSTMS /INCLUDING DRY LIGHTNING/. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM...WITH MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 50 KT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS AFTN. OUTLOOK AREAS WILL BE ISSUED FOR TWO AREAS...1) IN THE NRN PLAINS PRIMARILY FOR WIND/LOW RH AND 2) ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES FOR WIND/RH/DRY LIGHTNING. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN NV/SERN ID/NRN UT/WRN WY/SWRN MT... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH/STRONG WINDS NEAR 15-20 MPH/SCATTERED AREAS OF DRY LIGHTNING/DRY FUELS SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR CONTINUE THIS AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN MT AS FAR NORTH AS HLN AND PORTIONS OF THE SAWTOOTH RANGE/UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PWAT VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 0.5-0.8 INCH RANGE...SO A MIX OF WET/DRY TSTMS COULD OCCUR. DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CNTRL NV AS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...ESPECIALLY AS INITIAL WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. ACROSS NV AND UT...THE MAIN FIRE THREAT WILL BE FROM STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT TODAY. ISOLD STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN UT/WRN WY TOWARD 16/00Z...AS NEXT IMPULSE APPROACHES. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN ND/SD/WRN NEB... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS 15-25 MPH/MIN RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT/LONG TERM DROUGHT/ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS ERN MT/ERN WY TODAY...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD ACROSS SD. STRONGEST SLY WINDS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF SD. IN THIS ZONE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT WINDS MAY STILL BE GUSTY GIVEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. HIGH BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTN ACROSS ERN MT/NERN WY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING ISOLD SUPERCELLS GIVEN FAVORABLE VEERING PROFILE. ANY STORMS THAT FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. ...SERN ORE/SW ID... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IS APPROACHING ORE COAST...AND THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TRIGGER AFTN TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN CASCADES LATER THIS AFTN. INVERTED-V TYPE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST DRY LIGHTNING IS LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM. ..TAYLOR.. 08/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 151035 DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN ORE/NERN CA/NV/SRN ID/WRN WY/NWRN UT... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE BY WED AFTN...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 40-55 KT MID LEVEL WINDS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TREASURE VALLEY AND THE WRN GREAT BASIN BY WED AFTN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF VERY DRY/HOT CONDITIONS WITH THE INCREASING WIND WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN/NRN UT AND INTO WRN WY. LEE TROUGH WILL AGAIN SET UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT HIGHER RH VALUES WILL LESSEN THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN ORE/NERN CA/NV/SRN ID/WRN WY/NWRN UT... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS/MIN RH VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT/DRY FUELS/ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST...SFC WINDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 35 MPH POSSIBLE. SFC DEWPOINTS MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV AND UT...WHICH WILL CAUSE RH VALUES TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT. RECENT FIRE DANGER CLASS OBSERVATIONS RANGE FROM VERY HIGH TO EXTREME. TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ORE THROUGH THE CNTRL ID MTNS AND NRN ROCKIES. THIS IS WHERE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION AND WHERE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING WILL EXTEND FROM SERN ORE THROUGH SWRN AND SCNTRL MT. ...NRN PLAINS/PORTIONS OF MT AND NRN WY... MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTY SLY WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NCNTRL NEB AND SCNTRL SD. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S THOUGH...SO RH VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY OVER 25 PERCENT. HIGH BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN WY AND MT...AND SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY CONTAIN DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SREF CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FOR DRY TSTMS SUGGEST DRY LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE FROM CNTRL ORE THROUGH SCNTRL MT/NRN WY THROUGH 17/03Z. ..TAYLOR.. 08/15/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...