Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150930
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0430 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NV/SERN ID/NRN UT/WRN WY/SWRN
   MT...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN ND/SD/WRN NEB...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
   THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST. EARLY
   MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE AN IMPULSE LIFTING NE ACROSS
   NCNTRL NV...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AND DRY LIGHTNING OCCURRING OVER
   SRN ID/NRN UT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES...WITH THE POTENTIAL
   FOR SCATTERED TSTMS /INCLUDING DRY LIGHTNING/. STRONG WINDS WILL
   ALSO BE A PROBLEM...WITH MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 50 KT ACROSS
   THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS AFTN. OUTLOOK AREAS WILL BE ISSUED FOR
   TWO AREAS...1) IN THE NRN PLAINS PRIMARILY FOR WIND/LOW RH AND 2)
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES FOR WIND/RH/DRY
   LIGHTNING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN NV/SERN ID/NRN UT/WRN WY/SWRN
   MT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH/STRONG WINDS NEAR 15-20 MPH/SCATTERED
   AREAS OF DRY LIGHTNING/DRY FUELS
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
   EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
   DOWNDRAFT WINDS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR CONTINUE THIS AFTN
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN MT AS FAR NORTH AS HLN AND PORTIONS OF THE
   SAWTOOTH RANGE/UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PWAT
   VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 0.5-0.8 INCH RANGE...SO A MIX OF WET/DRY
   TSTMS COULD OCCUR. DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CNTRL NV AS NOTED ON WV
   IMAGERY...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS THE GREAT
   BASIN...ESPECIALLY AS INITIAL WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. ACROSS
   NV AND UT...THE MAIN FIRE THREAT WILL BE FROM STRONG WINDS AND LOW
   RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT TODAY. ISOLD STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   NRN UT/WRN WY TOWARD 16/00Z...AS NEXT IMPULSE APPROACHES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN ND/SD/WRN NEB...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS 15-25 MPH/MIN RH VALUES BELOW 20
   PERCENT/LONG TERM DROUGHT/ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING
   
   LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS ERN MT/ERN WY TODAY...AS A WARM FRONT
   LIFTS SLOWLY NWD ACROSS SD. STRONGEST SLY WINDS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
   THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF SD. IN THIS
   ZONE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPS IN THE
   90S. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT
   WINDS MAY STILL BE GUSTY GIVEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
   WEST. HIGH BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTN ACROSS ERN
   MT/NERN WY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE DEEP SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SEVERE STORMS
   INCLUDING ISOLD SUPERCELLS GIVEN FAVORABLE VEERING PROFILE. ANY
   STORMS THAT FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING AND
   GUSTY WINDS.
   
   ...SERN ORE/SW ID...
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IS APPROACHING
   ORE COAST...AND THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TRIGGER AFTN TSTMS ACROSS THE
   ERN CASCADES LATER THIS AFTN. INVERTED-V TYPE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
   SUGGEST DRY LIGHTNING IS LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 08/15/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 151035
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0535 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN ORE/NERN CA/NV/SRN ID/WRN
   WY/NWRN UT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE BY WED
   AFTN...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 40-55 KT MID LEVEL WINDS. COLD
   FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TREASURE VALLEY AND THE WRN GREAT BASIN BY
   WED AFTN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
   COMBINATION OF VERY DRY/HOT CONDITIONS WITH THE INCREASING WIND WILL
   RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT
   BASIN/NRN UT AND INTO WRN WY. LEE TROUGH WILL AGAIN SET UP ACROSS
   THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT HIGHER RH VALUES WILL LESSEN
   THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN ORE/NERN CA/NV/SRN ID/WRN
   WY/NWRN UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS/MIN
   RH VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT/DRY FUELS/ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING
   
   AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION
   FROM THE WEST...SFC WINDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL INCREASE TO
   NEAR 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 35 MPH POSSIBLE. SFC
   DEWPOINTS MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV AND
   UT...WHICH WILL CAUSE RH VALUES TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT. RECENT
   FIRE DANGER CLASS OBSERVATIONS RANGE FROM VERY HIGH TO EXTREME.
   
   TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ORE THROUGH THE CNTRL ID
   MTNS AND NRN ROCKIES. THIS IS WHERE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION AND WHERE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
   MAXIMIZED. THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING WILL EXTEND FROM SERN ORE
   THROUGH SWRN AND SCNTRL MT.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS/PORTIONS OF MT AND NRN WY...
   MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTY SLY WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS
   THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NCNTRL NEB AND SCNTRL SD. SFC
   DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S THOUGH...SO RH VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY
   OVER 25 PERCENT. HIGH BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN WY AND MT...AND SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY
   CONTAIN DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SREF CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES
   FOR DRY TSTMS SUGGEST DRY LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE FROM CNTRL ORE
   THROUGH SCNTRL MT/NRN WY THROUGH 17/03Z.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 08/15/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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