Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 150930
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0430 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NV/SERN ID/NRN UT/WRN WY/SWRN
MT...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN ND/SD/WRN NEB...
...SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST. EARLY
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE AN IMPULSE LIFTING NE ACROSS
NCNTRL NV...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AND DRY LIGHTNING OCCURRING OVER
SRN ID/NRN UT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED TSTMS /INCLUDING DRY LIGHTNING/. STRONG WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A PROBLEM...WITH MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 50 KT ACROSS
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS AFTN. OUTLOOK AREAS WILL BE ISSUED FOR
TWO AREAS...1) IN THE NRN PLAINS PRIMARILY FOR WIND/LOW RH AND 2)
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES FOR WIND/RH/DRY
LIGHTNING.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN NV/SERN ID/NRN UT/WRN WY/SWRN
MT...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH/STRONG WINDS NEAR 15-20 MPH/SCATTERED
AREAS OF DRY LIGHTNING/DRY FUELS
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
DOWNDRAFT WINDS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR CONTINUE THIS AFTN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN MT AS FAR NORTH AS HLN AND PORTIONS OF THE
SAWTOOTH RANGE/UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PWAT
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 0.5-0.8 INCH RANGE...SO A MIX OF WET/DRY
TSTMS COULD OCCUR. DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CNTRL NV AS NOTED ON WV
IMAGERY...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...ESPECIALLY AS INITIAL WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. ACROSS
NV AND UT...THE MAIN FIRE THREAT WILL BE FROM STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT TODAY. ISOLD STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NRN UT/WRN WY TOWARD 16/00Z...AS NEXT IMPULSE APPROACHES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN ND/SD/WRN NEB...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS 15-25 MPH/MIN RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT/LONG TERM DROUGHT/ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING
LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS ERN MT/ERN WY TODAY...AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS SLOWLY NWD ACROSS SD. STRONGEST SLY WINDS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF SD. IN THIS
ZONE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPS IN THE
90S. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT
WINDS MAY STILL BE GUSTY GIVEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST. HIGH BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTN ACROSS ERN
MT/NERN WY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DEEP SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING ISOLD SUPERCELLS GIVEN FAVORABLE VEERING PROFILE. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS.
...SERN ORE/SW ID...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IS APPROACHING
ORE COAST...AND THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TRIGGER AFTN TSTMS ACROSS THE
ERN CASCADES LATER THIS AFTN. INVERTED-V TYPE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SUGGEST DRY LIGHTNING IS LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM.
..TAYLOR.. 08/15/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 151035
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN ORE/NERN CA/NV/SRN ID/WRN
WY/NWRN UT...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE BY WED
AFTN...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 40-55 KT MID LEVEL WINDS. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TREASURE VALLEY AND THE WRN GREAT BASIN BY
WED AFTN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF VERY DRY/HOT CONDITIONS WITH THE INCREASING WIND WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN/NRN UT AND INTO WRN WY. LEE TROUGH WILL AGAIN SET UP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT HIGHER RH VALUES WILL LESSEN
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN ORE/NERN CA/NV/SRN ID/WRN
WY/NWRN UT...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS/MIN
RH VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT/DRY FUELS/ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING
AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...SFC WINDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 35 MPH POSSIBLE. SFC
DEWPOINTS MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV AND
UT...WHICH WILL CAUSE RH VALUES TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT. RECENT
FIRE DANGER CLASS OBSERVATIONS RANGE FROM VERY HIGH TO EXTREME.
TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ORE THROUGH THE CNTRL ID
MTNS AND NRN ROCKIES. THIS IS WHERE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION AND WHERE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING WILL EXTEND FROM SERN ORE
THROUGH SWRN AND SCNTRL MT.
...NRN PLAINS/PORTIONS OF MT AND NRN WY...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTY SLY WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NCNTRL NEB AND SCNTRL SD. SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S THOUGH...SO RH VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY
OVER 25 PERCENT. HIGH BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN WY AND MT...AND SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SREF CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES
FOR DRY TSTMS SUGGEST DRY LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE FROM CNTRL ORE
THROUGH SCNTRL MT/NRN WY THROUGH 17/03Z.
..TAYLOR.. 08/15/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...