Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 210900
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 AM CDT MON AUG 21 2006
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR AN OUTBREAK OF DRY LIGHTNING
   ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER/THERMAL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN STATES WITH
   VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LATE DAY FIRE GROWTH. AN
   IMPINGING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN THE WRN EDGE OF THE
   RIDGE...WITH AN OUTBREAK OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
   PACIFIC NW. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE GREAT
   BASIN DURING THE DAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT ACROSS OREGON INTO FAR NRN
   NV AND SRN ID.
   
   ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS...ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO INCREASE OVER ERN MT AND THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO CENTRAL TX...TO THE
   SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER WITH RAIN TO THE NORTH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF OREGON...SRN WA...EXTREME
   NRN CA/NV...FAR SWRN ID...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: OUTBREAK OF DRY LIGHTNING / HIGH HAINES / VERY
   LOW RH
   
   A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND A HIGH HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH
   MIN RH LEVELS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. MEANWHILE...AN
   UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS NRN CA INTO
   OREGON. FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN MID
   LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
   THE STORMS MAY BEGIN OVER FAR NRN CA AND/OR NWRN NV...BUT WILL
   SPREAD NNEWD INTO OREGON WHERE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
   GIVEN VERY DRY FUELS AND HOT/DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL
   FOR NEW FIRE STARTS WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH. SWLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
   WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THREAT...WITH SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO WLY
   WITH A WEAK FRONT LATE.
   
   STORMS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT GIVEN FAVORABLE
   FORCING...WITH CLUSTERS OF LIGHTNING POSSIBLY MOVING INTO SRN AND
   ERN WA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...WHICH COULD
   CAUSE PARTICULARLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS NEAR ONGOING FIRES.
   
   ...NRN AND ERN WA...
   IT WILL BE VERY HOT AND DRY WITH A HIGH HAINES INDEX WITHIN THERMAL
   RIDGE AXIS. THUS...ONGOING FIRES WILL INTENSIFY LATE IN THE DAY WITH
   PLUME DOMINATION A POSSIBILITY. OVERNIGHT...UPPER WAVE FEATURE WILL
   CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS OREGON AND INTO WA...WHERE AT LEAST ISOLATED
   LIGHTING STRIKES ARE ANTICIPATED. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT
   OVERALL THREAT WILL NOT WARRANT EXTENDING CRITICAL AREA FOR DRY
   THUNDER INTO NRN AND ERN WA...ALTHOUGH ANY LIGHTING STRIKES COULD
   CERTAINLY SPARK NEW FIRES. IF ANY STORMS REMAIN THIS FAR N...GUSTY
   OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD RESULT IN HAZARD NEAR FIRES.
   
   ...GREAT BASIN...
   SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH TO THE NORTH...WITH
   SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH LIKELY AND HIGHER GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH BY
   AFTERNOON WHEN VERTICAL MIXING IS STRONGEST. RH WILL BE VERY LOW
   WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. HAINES INDEX WILL BE HIGH
   AS WELL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FIRE BLOW-UPS LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECTED
   MAGNITUDE OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL PRECLUDE A LARGE SCALE
   ISSUANCE.
   
   ...NRN UT INTO WRN WY...ERN ID AND SWRN MT...
   SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY WILL SPARK
   ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE NRN WASATCH
   INTO FAR SERN ID/WRN WY AND SWRN MT. 
   
   ...CNTRL AND ERN MT...ERN WY...
   INCREASING SELY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND MIN RH OF 15-20 PERCENT WILL
   COMBINE FOR A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT TODAY. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER ERN WY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH RAIN
   BUT ALSO GUSTY WINDS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPILL INTO FAR SERN
   MT AS WELL.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 08/21/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 211030
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0530 AM CDT MON AUG 21 2006
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL AND ERN NV...NRN UT...CNTRL
   AND SRN ID...FAR SE ORE...WRN AND CNTRL WY...SWRN MT...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR E SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AS WELL
   AS THE COLUMBIA GORGE...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BELT OF MDT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE OVER FOUR CORNERS AND
   UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL CAUSE GUSTY SWLY
   WINDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO WY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY
   DRY WITH HIGH HAINES. FARTHER N...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
   FROM WA INTO NRN ID AND ACROSS MT...SOME COULD BE DRY OVER MT.
   PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WRN MT
   AND POST FRONTAL AIR MASS W OF THE CASCADES WILL ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE
   WINDS ALONG AND E OF WA/ORE CASCADES.
   
   FARTHER E...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORM ACROSS THE NRN AND
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH STRONG SLY WINDS....FROM ERN CO INTO WRN
   NEB/SD. RECENT PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS WILL HELP MITIGATE FIRE
   THREAT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CNTRL AND ERN NV...NRN UT...CNTRL
   AND SRN ID...FAR SE ORE...WRN AND CNTRL WY...SWRN MT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY SWLY WINDS...HIGH HAINES...VERY LOW RH
   
   SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ALONG SRN EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH...WITHIN A
   VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS. SUSTAINED SWLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH
   ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE
   MARGINAL...HAINES INDEX WILL BE HIGH...WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES IN
   THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
   BOTH AFTERNOON PLUME DOMINATION AND ALSO FIRE SPREAD DUE TO GUSTY
   WINDS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - E SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AS WELL AS
   THE COLUMBIA GORGE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WLY WINDS AND LOW RH
   
   A STRONG W-E PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP
   THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS THROUGH THE WA AND ORE CASCADES...AS WELL
   AS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE. SUSTAINED WLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL
   BE LIKELY...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RH LEVELS WILL BE MARGINALLY LOW OVER
   THE WRN CRITICAL AREA...BUT WILL DECREASE TO 15-20 PERCENT FARTHER
   E. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER FAR NERN WA
   INTO NRN ID. THESE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY.
   THUS...ANY FIRE STARTS DUE TO LIGHTNING MAY BE AGGRAVATED LATER IN
   THE DAY BY THE HIGHER WINDS.
   
   ...SRN MT...
   MODERATE INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF MT...DUE TO
   COOLING ALOFT AND INCREASED MOISTURE. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...STORMS
   WILL ERUPT OVER MUCH OF SWRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MT...FAVORING WLY
   SLOPES FOR INITIATION. WHILE NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
   LIKELY...INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL FAVOR RAIN. THUS...A MIXTURE OF WET
   AND DRY STORMS IS ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...NERN CO...WRN NEB...
   OTHERWISE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE MITIGATED BY RECENT
   RAINFALL.  SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
   PRESSURES FALL TO THE WEST. RH LEVELS WILL BE MARGINALLY
   LOW...BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. LOCALIZED AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN DRY
   MAY SEE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TUE AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE RAIN
   FORMS ALONG DRYLINE.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 08/21/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home