Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 191155
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0655 AM CDT TUE SEP 19 2006
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC LINE
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV...SWRN UT...NWRN
   AZ...PORTIONS OF ERN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD
   AND APPROACH THE ERN SEABOARD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH RIDGING
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
   THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN. AT
   THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF ID AND NRN
   NV BY EARLY EVENING...WITH STRONG SWLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF NV...WRN UT...NWRN
   AZ...PORTIONS OF ERN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SHORT-TERM DRYNESS
   
   A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. A DRY
   AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND CRITICALLY LOW RH OF 8 TO 15
   PERCENT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER ALL BUT
   NRN/CNTRL NV. HERE...INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
   INSOLATION AND RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20
   PERCENT...PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST
   SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR HERE AS MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 60 TO 70
   MPH SPREADS SEWD. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HELP MIX THESE
   STRONG WINDS ALOFT TOWARDS THE SURFACE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25
   TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. FURTHER S...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20
   TO 25 MPH SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
   LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. POOR RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
   OF TONIGHT ACROSS FAR SRN NV/NWRN AZ/SWRN UT AS MODERATE SWLY WINDS
   CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/19/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 190915
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0415 AM CDT TUE SEP 19 2006
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT...FAR NWRN
   NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO MOVE SEWD...REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG
   MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD EWD ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE TROUGH
   FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. AT THE SURFACE...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL
   BE INDUCED LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS ERN CO INTO WRN KS...WITH A COLD
   FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FOUR
   CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES AND CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...CRITICALLY LOW
   RH SHOULD BE CONFINED SW OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT...FAR NWRN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT / LOW
   RH
   
   STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR QUITE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AFTER THE
   PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT.
   ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF
   LOW/MID-LEVEL DRYING THAT WILL OCCUR IN THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
   FRONT...IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT A PERIOD OF MARGINALLY LOW RH
   AROUND 15 PERCENT SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
   BEHIND THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD LEAD TO OPTIMAL DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT DURING PEAK
   HEATING. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
   AROUND 40 MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/19/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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