Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 210902
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0402 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM...NWRN TX...FAR SWRN OK...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN NM WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
   RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
   TRACK FROM ERN CO TO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED DRY
   LINE/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. BEHIND THIS
   SYSTEM...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE SWD FROM THE PACIFIC
   NW THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY
   STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT/SRN NV.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN NM...NWRN TX...FAR SWRN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
   
   REGIONAL WIND PROFILERS ALREADY INDICATE A 45 TO 60 MPH LOW-LEVEL
   JET EXISTS THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS JET WILL GRADUALLY  WEAKEN AS
   THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NE...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND HELP TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS
   TOWARDS THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WILL
   BE MAXIMIZED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED
   W/SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH APPEAR QUITE LIKELY...WITH
   GUSTS TOWARDS 45 TO 50 MPH. CURRENTLY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
   ABUNDANT OVER MUCH OF THE CRITICAL AREA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND FRONTAL
   PASSAGE WILL HELP RAPIDLY DRY THE LOW-LEVELS AND WILL LEAD TO
   CRITICALLY LOW RH BY AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 10 TO 15
   PERCENT W...WITH 15 TO 20 PERCENT E.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SHORT-TERM DRYNESS
   
   AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT/SRN NV...A STRONG
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN CA COASTAL
   RANGE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH NEAR
   SUNSET ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY REGION. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING
   MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE
   PACIFIC NW/GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL WARM
   INTO THE 80S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S...CRITICALLY LOW RH OF 10
   TO 15 PERCENT WILL BE PRESENT NEAR THE COMMENCING OF THE STRONG
   WINDS.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF NRN CA/NWRN NV...
   N/NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING S OF THE SISKIYOUS IN
   NRN CA AND ACROSS NWRN NV...AS A COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD EXCEED 20 MPH
   WITH GUSTS LIKELY AROUND 30 MPH. HOWEVER...RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
   ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES IN MOST AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   CLOUDINESS LIMITING HEATING AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND STRONG COOLING
   EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EVENING. BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
   COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE RH VALUES SHOULD
   BE MARGINALLY LOW AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/21/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 210953
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA COASTAL
   RANGE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN NM...NWRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL WEAKEN...AS ANOTHER
   UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EWD FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL
   ROCKIES. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT AROUND THE LOWS
   ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES AND CNTRL PLAINS. AT
   THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE OK/TX
   PANHANDLES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SHORT-TERM DRYNESS
   
   WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE OPTIMALLY ALIGNED FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS S OF
   THE SISKIYOUS AND W OF THE SIERRAS INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY...AND
   POTENTIALLY W OF THE COASTAL MTNS.  WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL N/NELY
   JET OVERHEAD...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH APPEAR
   LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WILL LEAD TO
   SUBSIDENCE AND ENHANCED DRYING HELPING TO PRODUCE CRITICALLY LOW RH
   OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. POOR RH RECOVERY IS
   EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE NELY WINDS CONTINUING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / VERY LOW RH / SHORT-TERM
   DRYNESS
   
   OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATE FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
   BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
   ALREADY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...AND SHOULD BE FURTHER
   STRENGTHENED BY THE DOWNSLOPE N/NELY FLOW. VERY LOW RH VALUES OF 5
   TO 10 PERCENT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DEW POINTS
   DROP THROUGH THE TEENS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 15 TO
   20 MPH OVER MOST AREAS...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN
   CANYONS/PASSES WITH GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. VERY POOR RH
   RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN WINDS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN NM...NWRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
   
   SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. SUSTAINED
   SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS ON THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL REACH 
   2O TO 25 MPH. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. DEW POINTS WILL
   LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE 30S...LEADING TO MIN RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15
   PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/21/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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