Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070840
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 AM CDT SAT OCT 07 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN SD...FAR NRN NEB PANHANDLE...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH
   CLOSED LOWS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN CA COAST IN THE WEST...AND
   ALONG THE SC/GA COAST IN THE EAST. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
   THE SRN PLAINS NEWD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NRN ROCKIES WILL PHASE WITH ENERGY MOVING NEWD
   FROM THE GREAT BASIN. AS THESE FEATURES COMBINE AND EJECT ONTO THE
   NRN PLAINS...A SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS ND AND LIFT NEWD
   INTO FAR WRN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG S/SWLY WINDS WILL
   OCCUR TO THE S/SE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK BENEATH A LOW-LEVEL JET
   AND TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  WHILE GUSTY W/NWLY WINDS WILL
   BE FOUND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS LATE TODAY/TONIGHT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SWRN SD...FAR NRN NEB PANHANDLE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LONG-TERM DROUGHT / LOW RH
   
   WHILE STRONG WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
   N-CNTRL CONUS...A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF CRITICALLY LOW RH SHOULD
   DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE BLACK HILLS REGION. AS A PRE-FRONTAL
   TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE MO RIVER VALLEY...SWLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
   WILL COMMENCE AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL WARMING/DRYING. IN
   ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A MID-LEVEL
   DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...LEADING TO INCREASED
   SOLAR INSOLATION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S AND 80S
   WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S. THIS WILL LEAD TO CRITICALLY
   LOW RH VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30
   MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT PEAK HEATING. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
   SEWD THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTY NWLY WINDS IN ITS
   WAKE.
   
   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   FURTHER S OF THE CRITICAL AREA...STRONG S/SWLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TO
   THE S OF A SURFACE TROUGH ARCING SWWD FROM CNTRL SD INTO NERN CO
   THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES SHOULD ONLY BE MARGINALLY
   LOW...MITIGATING A CRITICAL THREAT AREA ISSUANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL
   REACH THE 80S ONCE AGAIN WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING INTO THE 40S. MIN
   RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...N-CNTRL WA...
   GUSTY NLY WINDS WERE PRESENT THIS MORNING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF
   THE CASCADES IN NRN WA...AIDED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. AS
   THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD TODAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
   SUSTAINED SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20 MPH PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING. DRYING
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO
   CRITICALLY LOW RH DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
   TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S AND 60S...DEW
   POINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. THIS WOULD
   ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
   
   ...WRN FL PANHANDLE...
   DRY NLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES
   OF 35 TO 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. A MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/07/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 070939
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0439 AM CDT SAT OCT 07 2006
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH CLOSED
   MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS ALONG THE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC COASTS...AND A
   LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE S-CNTRL CONUS. THE TWO CLOSED LOWS SHOULD
   MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN CA IN THE WEST AND OFFSHORE OF GA/FL IN
   THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
   N-CNTRL CONUS SHOULD SLOW AND BECOME STATIONARY BY MONDAY MORNING. A
   LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED FROM THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS WWD TO OFF THE WA COAST. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN
   OFFSHORE FLOW WITH INCREASED DRYING ACROSS NRN CA.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF NRN CA...
   OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW
   AND LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN CA. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF MODERATE
   N/NELY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OCCUR ALONG MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
   COAST...TO THE N/NW OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER FAR SRN CA. BY SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON...RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE
   NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND DOWNWIND LOCATIONS OF THE NRN
   SIERRAS/SISKIYOUS/COASTAL MTNS. WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S
   AND DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...RH VALUES
   AROUND 15 PERCENT APPEAR LIKELY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RELAX DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AS A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS...BUT AT LEAST MODEST
   OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD OCCUR ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. OVERALL
   MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS PRECLUDES A
   CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE ATTM.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/07/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home