Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 190923
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0423 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2006
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A PORTION OF SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS
   TODAY. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO FIRE
   DANGER. OVER THE WRN CONUS...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   DOMINANT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER
   THE SRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONE MORE DAY OF
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER SRN CA AS
   MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL EXIST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY VERY
   LOW RH READINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA COASTAL MTNS AND ADJACENT
   VALLEYS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
   UP TO 35 MPH THIS MORNING...VERY LOW RH READINGS AROUND 10 PERCENT
   
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB OVER CENTRAL NV WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
   THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE PAC
   NW TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL EXIST THIS
   MORNING THAT SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WILL BE LIKELY
   ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND BELOW CANYONS. ALTHOUGH SOME
   RESTRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS COULD OCCUR IN VERY LOCALIZED AREAS OF
   HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. VERY LOW RH READINGS FROM 8-12 PERCENT WILL
   AGAIN OCCUR TODAY AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
   THE HIGH DESERTS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING SUPPORT TEMPERATURES 5-10
   DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 10/19/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 190925
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0425 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2006
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A PORTION OF NRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO THE
   CENTRAL ROCKIES TOMORROW. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SEWD
   INTO THE PAC NW/NRN GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AS
   THIS HIGH MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN...IT WILL SUPPORT A
   STRENGTHENING THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NRN CA AND
   GENERATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND LOW RH READINGS. COMBINED WITH
   INCIPIENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESIDE
   OVER THE REMAINDER OF INTERIOR CA...BUT THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
   SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG WIND
   SPEEDS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SINK
   SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED A STRONG COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR
   WILL FILTER INTO THE SERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT
   RECENT RAINFALL OVER THIS REGION WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER
   RELATED CONCERNS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
   OVER 35 MPH DEVELOPING AFTER 21/00Z....LOW RH READINGS FROM 10-15
   PERCENT...INCIPIENT DROUGHT
   
   BEHIND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   BUILD SWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR PAC NW INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN
   THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OFF THE PAC NW
   COAST...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT WWD OFF THE NRN CA COAST BY
   THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE A MODERATE OFFSHORE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION /10-14 MB OVER 200
   MILES/ BY SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED NLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH ARE
   LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN SAC VALLEY AND MTNS OF NRN CA DURING
   THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
   INTENSIFY...WITH THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
   LATER IN THE NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. VERY LOW
   RH READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT WILL BE COMMONPLACE OVER THE AREA
   WITH PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENT/COMPRESSIONAL FLOW
   OVER THE SRN CASCADES/NRN SIERRA NEVADA AND COASTAL RANGE MTNS.
   MODERATE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO SUPPORT POOR RH RECOVERY. DESPITE
   LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST WEEK...THE OVERALL PRECIP TREND
   ACROSS THE AREA THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS INDICATES INCIPIENT
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN CA...
   THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH FRIDAY
   NIGHT. HOWEVER...MIN RH READINGS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW /10-15
   PERCENT/ DUE TO PRESENCE OF REMNANT GREAT BASIN DRY AIR AND ABOVE
   NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LACK OF STRONGER THAN 20 MPH WINDS WILL
   PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.  THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   IN THE WAKE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   ROCKIES...THE SFC LEE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH. SEASONABLY LOW
   DEWPTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
   WILL SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN
   NM AND WRN TX. RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE REGION WILL LIMIT ANY
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 10/19/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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