Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 200920
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0420 AM CDT FRI OCT 20 2006
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A PORTION OF NRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO THE
   CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SEWD
   INTO THE PAC NW/NRN GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AS
   THIS HIGH MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN...IT WILL SUPPORT A
   STRENGTHENING OF THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NRN CA AND
   GENERATION OF MODERATE WINDS. COMBINED WITH  LOW RH READINGS AND
   INCIPIENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. A VERY
   DRY AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE REMAINDER OF INTERIOR CA...BUT THE
   OFFSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL/SRN CA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
   NATION...ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SINK SWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
   ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
   SERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...BUT RECENT RAINFALL OVER
   THIS REGION WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NNELY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
   OVER 35 MPH DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON....LOW RH READINGS FROM 10-15
   PERCENT...INCIPIENT DROUGHT
   
   BEHIND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
   TODAY...A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD THROUGH THE
   INTERIOR PAC NW INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN. WITH UPPER RIDGING
   BUILDING OFF THE PAC NW COAST...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT WWD
   OFF THE NRN CA COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE A
   MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION
   /10-14 MB OVER 200 MILES/ BY SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED NLY WINDS
   FROM 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN SAC VALLEY AND
   MTNS OF NRN CA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
   TO INTENSIFY...WITH THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS ANTICIPATED TO
   DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL RANGES/FOOTHILLS AS THE
   GRADIENT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. VERY LOW RH READINGS FROM 10-15
   PERCENT WILL BE COMMONPLACE OVER THE AREA WITH PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
   RIDGE AND SUBSIDENT/COMPRESSIONAL FLOW OVER THE SRN CASCADES/NRN
   SIERRA NEVADA AND COASTAL RANGE MTNS. MODERATE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
   ALSO SUPPORT POOR RH RECOVERY. DESPITE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
   LAST WEEK...THE OVERALL PRECIP TREND ACROSS THE AREA THE LAST COUPLE
   OF MONTHS INDICATES INCIPIENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN CA...
   THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH FRIDAY
   NIGHT. HOWEVER...MIN RH READINGS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW /10-15
   PERCENT/ DUE TO PRESENCE OF REMNANT GREAT BASIN DRY AIR AND ABOVE
   NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LACK OF STRONGER THAN 20 MPH WINDS WILL
   PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.  THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. 
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   IN THE WAKE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   ROCKIES...THE SFC LEE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
   SEASONABLY LOW DEWPTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASING
   DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-20 PERCENT OVER
   PORTIONS OF ERN NM...SERN CO AND WRN TX. RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE
   REGION WILL LIMIT ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT HOWEVER.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 10/20/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200920
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0420 AM CDT FRI OCT 20 2006
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A PORTION OF NRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS
   TOMORROW. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
   SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
   RESTRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL/SRN CA AS A RESULT...LEADING TO THE
   POSSIBLE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THIS
   AREA. MEANWHILE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER NRN CA EARLY
   IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DIMINISHING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...A
   STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE
   PLAINS UPPER TROUGH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - A PORTION OF NRN CA EARLY IN THE
   DAY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
   UP TO 40 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT
   
   OFFSHORE GRADIENTS IN THE EARLY MORNING HRS...21/12Z-15Z...WILL
   REMAIN STRONG /10-14 MB FROM SFO-WMC/. THIS WILL SUPPORT NELY WINDS
   FROM 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM THE EAST BAY HILLS NWD INTO
   THE NRN COASTAL RANGE/FOOTHILLS OF NRN CA. AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
   AREA OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW MOVES SWD INTO THE SRN
   GREAT BASIN THROUGH TOMORROW...THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT OVER NRN CA
   WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...DRY AIR /RH READINGS
   FROM 10-20 PERCENT/ WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER THE REMAINDER
   OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ...SRN/CENTRAL CA...
   AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES SWD THROUGH THE GREAT
   BASIN...THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RE-STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
   DEGREE OF STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THUS THE
   STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO
   NOT WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUANCE ATTM. IF LATER FCSTS
   INDICATE A STRONGER GRADIENT...THEN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WOULD NEED
   TO BE UPGRADED GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
   OVER THE REGION.
   
   ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   SIMILAR TO AREAS FURTHER WEST...THE DEGREE OF STRENGTH OF SFC HIGH
   OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IF
   LATER FCSTS INDICATE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG N-S GRADIENT...THEN
   SUSTAINED NLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WOULD BE REALIZED AND COMBINED
   WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT WOULD PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 10/20/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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