Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 260849
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 AM CDT THU OCT 26 2006
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND S PLAINS
   OF NWRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL MOVE EWD INTO
   ERN OK BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
   ACROSS NRN OK WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE
   SRN PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
   IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD INTO CA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
   THE PACIFIC NW WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO THE CNTRL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH / GUSTY WINDS / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
   
   OFFSHORE FLOW HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING IN PORTIONS OF THE
   SRN CA COASTAL RANGE N OF LAX WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH
   AND RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW STRONG E/NELY WINDS TO ENGULF THE REST
   OF THE COASTAL RANGE THROUGH THIS MORNING PRODUCING RAPID DRYING.
   WITH FULL INSOLATION....TEMPERATURES BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM
   INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S. MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 4 TO 8
   PERCENT. VERY POOR RH RECOVERY /AOB 20 PERCENT/ IS EXPECTED
   OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS
   AROUND 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND S PLAINS OF
   NWRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
   
   ALTHOUGH THE DRYNESS OF FUELS APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL...STRONG
   DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LEAD TO CRITICALLY LOW RH DEVELOPING THIS
   AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
   MORNING...ALLOWING W/NWLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
   OF THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL PRODUCE
   INCREASINGLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE
   MECHANICAL MIXING OF A 30 TO 40 MPH LOW-LEVEL JET /PER AREA
   PROFILERS/. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.
   TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 6
   TO 12 PERCENT. ANY CRITICAL THREAT SHOULD ABRUPTLY END AROUND SUNSET
   AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL SURGE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE N AND
   RAPIDLY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL RH.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE NRN CA COASTAL MTNS...
   ONGOING NELY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS
   THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. RH RECOVERY HAS
   BEEN VERY POOR THIS MORNING WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING RH
   VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. DAYTIME HEATING WILL MAINTAIN THE
   VERY LOW RH WITH MIN VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. A
   MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND SHOULD
   HELP PRODUCE SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS LOCALLY FAVORED
   CANYONS/HILLS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/26/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 260925
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0425 AM CDT THU OCT 26 2006
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY
   MORNING...SHOULD EJECT EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
   DEEP SOUTH AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE FAR UPPER MIDWEST.
   MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
   CA AND SWRN CONUS. WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
   BENEATH THIS RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF CA. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
   
   CRITICAL EVENT FROM DAY 1 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH MODERATE
   DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE SRN CA COASTAL RANGE AIDING IN A LONG
   DURATION OF RH AOB 15 PERCENT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
   WILL SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES OF 3 TO 8 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20
   TO 25 MPH SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO CANYONS AND PASSES. THESE
   WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAYTIME BEFORE REDEVELOPING FRIDAY
   EVENING...MAINTAINING POOR RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/26/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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