Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 290850
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL AMPLIFY AS A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN INTO THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
   CONTINUE TO PLUNGE S/EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. FURTHER W...AN
   EXPANSIVE AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD FROM SRN BRITISH
   COLUMBIA INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SRN CA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM
   DRYNESS
   
   MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GUSTY N/ELY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY
   THIS MORNING...MAINLY N OF LAX ALONG THE SAN GABRIEL MTNS. OFFSHORE
   FLOW WILL INCREASE SWD ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGE LATER THIS
   MORNING...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
   EXPANDS INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
   WILL BE RATHER COOL /MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S/...THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
   WILL ENHANCE DRYING AND ALLOW RH VALUES TO REACH 10 TO 15 PERCENT.
   EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
   MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH IN LOCALLY FAVORED
   CANYON/PASSES. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SUPPORT VERY POOR OVERNIGHT
   RH RECOVERY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
   
   INCREASING SUBSIDENCE TO THE W OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR
   TO FUNNEL SWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
   ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A 35 TO 45 MPH NLY LOW-LEVEL JET THIS
   AFTERNOON. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL /MAINLY IN THE 50S/ WITH RATHER STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...RH VALUES SHOULD STILL BE
   ABLE TO REACH 10 TO 15 PERCENT...AS DEW POINTS DROP TO NEAR ZERO.
   
   ...TRANSPECOS REGION OF SW TX...
   BOTH MARGINALLY LOW RH AND MODERATE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
   TODAY AHEAD OF AN INTENSE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
   WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
   THIS WILL HELP MITIGATE CRITICALLY LOW RH FROM DEVELOPING...AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S AND RH VALUES
   ONLY DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT. SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS
   SHOULD RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 11/29/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 290947
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006
   
   VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SRN STREAM TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THU
   MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BEFORE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
   AS IT EJECTS TOWARDS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD ACROSS SWRN CANADA INTO THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS...MAINTAINING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
   AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF
   MEXICO...WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
   FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: OFFSHORE WINDS / VERY LOW RH / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
   
   SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THU MORNING WITH A TIGHT
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS UT AND A
   TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. THE WINDS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
   DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE
   HIGH PRESSURE AREA WEAKENING AND BUILDING SEWD. HOWEVER...VERY LOW
   RH IS EXPECTED FROM 3 TO 8 PERCENT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
   MID 70S. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THU NIGHT...ALBEIT
   LIGHTER...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT POOR RH RECOVERY. FAVORED TERRAIN
   LOCALES MAY STILL EXPERIENCE GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / HIGH KBDI
   
   ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING OF AN ARCTIC
   COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THU MORNING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
   BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
   GUSTY N/NWLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BE
   MAINTAINED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A RATHER INTENSE SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY...WITH
   GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
   MARGINALLY WARM FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS
   SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS...WITH RH VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 11/29/2006
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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