Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 160758
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CST SAT DEC 16 2006
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARDS
THE SRN HUDSON BAY REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING S/SEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
STALL...AS A LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SERN CO. THIS LOW
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN PART DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST DIGGING INTO CA...WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE SERN STATES. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN S
OF THE CO LOW...WITH A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AS BROAD
SWLY FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTRIBUTES TO DOWNSLOPE
WARMING. THIS WILL LEAD TO RH VALUES BECOMING LOW FOR A FEW HOURS
FROM 12 TO 18 PERCENT. HOWEVER...0-1 KM WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TO
AROUND 20 MPH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS A
LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES FURTHER NEWD IN WARM CONVEYOR REGION OF
S-CNTRL CANADIAN CYCLONE. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY
BE AROUND 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MARGINALITY OF THE
WINDS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.
...SERN AZ...
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO CA...BOTH LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLY
WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ACROSS SERN AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. AS OBSERVED ON 16/00Z TUS SOUNDING...THE
ANTECEDENT LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS DRY...WITH 0-1 KM RH AROUND 15
PERCENT. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ONE MORE AFTERNOON OF
NEAR-CRITICALLY LOW RH IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE A MORE RAPID
INCREASE IN MOISTURE UNDER SWLY WINDS THIS EVENING. CONSEQUENTLY...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND RH AROUND 15
PERCENT MAY OCCUR.
..GRAMS.. 12/16/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 160917
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 AM CST SAT DEC 16 2006
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS A LARGE
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS AND W OF BAJA CA...WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SERN STATES.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SERN CO WILL LIFT NEWD AS A
WEAK FRONTAL WAVE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS NEWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WAVE WILL HELP PUSH THE
FRONT SWD FROM THE CNTRL INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT BASIN LEADING TO OFFSHORE FLOW OVER PORTIONS OF SRN CA EARLY
MONDAY.
...SERN NM/NWRN TX...
ONE MORE DAY OF RATHER WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO THE
S OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...BEFORE THE FRONT ACCELERATES SWD
MONDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL COOLING INCREASES. THIS
WILL AID IN STRONGER MECHANICAL MIXING COMPARED TO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON....AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING
NEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH. ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF MID-LEVEL COOLING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY...FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
RH VALUES SHOULD BE MARGINALLY LOW FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
...SRN CA COASTAL RANGE...
AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SWD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN
THE NRN GREAT BASIN...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH PROBABLE
PRECIPITATION ON DAY 1...WILL HELP MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
..GRAMS.. 12/16/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...