Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 250934
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 AM CST THU JAN 25 2007
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE SCALE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE
   GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS PERIOD AS A
   PAIR OF MERGING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SUPPORT STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WELL
   OFF THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY
   CONSOLIDATING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WILL ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH LATE TODAY AS DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW
   INTENSIFIES. CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO ACT TO
   SHUNT THE QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FL SEWD TO
   THE BAHAMAS AND NRN CUBA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE GA AND FL
   THROUGH TODAY AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM THE MID MS
   VALLEY.
   
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE WRN STATES WILL
   WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A PACIFIC UPPER LOW MOVES
   TOWARD THE COAST OF CA/ORE...AND NRN MEXICO UPPER LOW DRIFTS NWWD
   THEN NWD THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
   
   ...GA/FL...
   RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA/NRN FL WILL DEPART THESE AREAS THIS
   MORNING AND BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
   SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL RH VALUES ARE
   FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT AS NW WINDS INCREASE TO ABOUT
   15 MPH. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50F ACROSS NRN GA TO
   NEAR 60F FARTHER SOUTH. DESPITE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE REGION...EARLY MORNING RAIN...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND
   RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF LOWEST RH VALUES...SHOULD COMBINE TO
   LIMIT OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL WINDS SHOULD OFFSET LOW RH
   TO KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 01/25/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 250934
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 AM CST THU JAN 25 2007
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER FLOW WILL DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST DURING FRIDAY WITH BELT OF
   STRONGEST NWLY WINDS ALOFT EXTENDING FROM SRN CANADA TO OFF THE MID
   ATLANTIC COAST. AS UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN MEXICO BEGINS TO OPEN AND
   TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM...MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
   ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN A STRONG SURFACE
   ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
   
   UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
   PROGRESS AS LARGE SCALE RIDGE DEVELOPS TO ITS NORTH...ACROSS BC.
   
   ...FL...
   COOL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS FL THROUGH FRIDAY IN
   THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
   THE 60S ACROSS THE WRN/SWRN SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...RH VALUES
   ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS. NELY WINDS OF
   10-15 MPH APPEAR LIKELY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. LOCALIZED
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD EVOLVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
   GIVEN KBDI VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 600-700...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I4
   AND ALONG I75.
   
   PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA AT THIS
   JUNCTURE INCLUDE RELATIVELY BRIEF DURATION OF LOW RH AND STRONGER
   WINDS...THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
   TODAY...AND WEAKER WINDS INDICATED IN LATEST GFS FORECAST. IF
   NAM-WRF FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT ACROSS WRN FL OVER THE
   NEXT FEW RUNS...A CRITICAL AREA MAY BE NEEDED IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 01/25/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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