Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 160952
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 AM CST FRI FEB 16 2007
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
   COUNTRY...ONE EMBEDDED IMPULSE WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
   STATES...WHILE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY DIVES
   SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGE WILL
   REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
   STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES/LOW
   RH VALUES
   
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
   TODAY...WITH A RESULTANT INCREASE IN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS
   SOUTHERN CA DURING THE PERIOD. THE CULMINATION OF A GUSTY SANTA ANA
   WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...AMIDST A
   STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT /LAX-TPH PEAKING AROUND 10-11 MILLIBARS PER
   00Z NAM AND GFS FORECAST GUIDANCE/. ALTHOUGH RECENT PRECIPITATION
   MAY BE A DETRIMENTAL FACTOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE
   CONDITIONS...CONSIDERABLE LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICIENCIES
   EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN CA.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST STATES/FL...
   AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
   TODAY...A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES AND FL. EVEN WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION AND
   RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S F...DRYING
   NATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL RH VALUES THIS
   AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT FOR A
   FEW HOURS DURATION ACROSS MUCH OF AL/GA/SC AND NORTHERN FL...RANGING
   TO AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FL.
   SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH 10-15 MPH...ESPECIALLY WITH
   SOUTH EXTENT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/16/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 161030
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0430 AM CST FRI FEB 16 2007
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL SEE AN UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY
   TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY ON
   SATURDAY...WHILE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE EASTERN STATES IMPULSE...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
   SOUTH TX AND GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES/LOW
   RH
   
   GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
   COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN CA...ESPECIALLY BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES.
   WHILE THE GUSTY NATURE OF THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY AS
   THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT RELAXES...WARM TEMPERATURES /70S IN THE
   COASTAL VALLEYS/ AND LOW RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
   CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING AND TRENDING ONSHORE BY THE END
   OF THE PERIOD...LEADING TO A DIMINISHING FIRE WEATHER THREAT INTO
   SUNDAY.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST STATES/NORTHERN FL...
   A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
   DURING THE AFTERNOON/NIGHTTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. A MODERATELY
   STRONG SOUTHWESTLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO WIND
   SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TRAJECTORIES WILL
   BE FROM THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE DAY...INITIAL DRY NATURE OF THE
   AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL AGAIN ALLOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO
   REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
   SATURDAY AND PERSISTENCE OF LOW RH VALUES...PORTIONS OF THE REGION
   MAY BE UPGRADED TO CRITICAL IN THE SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
   
   ...CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY...
   IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
   DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
   TX...LEADING TO A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL
   LIKELY REACH 20 MPH /WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ DURING THE DAYLIGHT
   HOURS...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND RH VALUES AS LOW
   AS 20 PERCENT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 02/16/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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