Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 220848
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 AM CST THU FEB 22 2007
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-UPPER TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
   IMAGERY JUST OFFSHORE PACIFIC COAST -- IS FCST TO MOVE INLAND BY
   ABOUT 23/00Z THEN EWD OVER PACIFIC NW AND GREAT BASIN BY END OF
   PERIOD.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGING WILL EXTEND
   FROM NRN HIGH PLAINS SSEWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL TX.  WEAK SRN STREAM
   UPPER TROUGH NOW OFFSHORE BAJA SHOULD EJECT NEWD RAPIDLY ACROSS NRN
   MEX DURING DAY...REACHING SW TX BY 23/00Z...BUT WITH LITTLE
   INFLUENCE ON SFC CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA OF INTEREST.
   
   AT SFC...LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR BENEATH WLY/SWLY
   MIDLEVEL WINDS.  ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION AND SFC CONVERGENCE WILL
   HELP TO SHARPEN DRYLINE ACROSS W TX LATE IN PERIOD...HOWEVER BROAD
   SWATH OF CENTRAL/W TX WILL BE DRY DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MAIN
   PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN.
   
   ...W TX...ERN NM...
   SOME FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE WITH EXPECTATION OF
   DRY/DORMANT 10 H FUELS ACROSS GRASSLANDS AND RANGELANDS OF SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS-PECOS REGIONS.  DURING AFTERNOON
   HOURS...SEASONALLY STRONG SFC HEATING W OF DRYLINE WILL SUPPRESS RH
   TO 15-20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NM AND W TX.  S-SW WINDS
   MAY APCH 20 MPH WITH GUSTS BRIEFLY HIGHER DURING AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
   FCST WIND PROFILES APPEAR MRGL ENOUGH...WITH SHORT/SPORADIC
   DURATION...TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NEEDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA
   ATTM.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/22/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 220936
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 AM CST THU FEB 22 2007
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS SRN HIGH PLAINS AND
   TRANS-PECOS REGIONS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
   IMAGERY OFFSHORE PACIFIC COAST  IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS WRN CONUS
   THROUGH DAY-1.  AFTER 24/00Z....SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL
   DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY INTO CLOSED LOW BETWEEN 4-CORNERS AREA AND TX/OK
   PANHANDLES.  STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND FALLING HEIGHTS ARE
   FCST ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD.  THIS
   WILL YIELD VIGOROUS MOIST ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL TX/WRN OK...AND BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON...SHARPENING/CONFLUENT DRYLINE FROM NRN COAHUILA
   NNEWD TO ERN PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN/ERN NM...FAR W TX TO WRN TX
   PANHANDLE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW AFTERNOON RH...STRONG/GUSTY SW
   WINDS...DRY/DORMANT FUELS
   
   STRONGEST SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...AND MOST INTENSE
   SFC WIND RESPONSE TO ITS S...IS FCST AFTER DARK WHEN NOCTURNAL
   COOLING WILL INCREASE RH.  HOWEVER...SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SWATH OF
   25-30 MPH WIND WITH 30-35 MPH GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP BEFORE
   NIGHTFALL...W OF DRYLINE...ACROSS PORTIONS SRN/ERN NM AND W TX. 
   GUSTS LOCALLY MAY EXCEED 40 MPH...IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PASSES OF
   SRN NM AND FAR W TX.  ONSET OF FAVORABLE FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH
   SEASONALLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND RELATED DROP IN SFC RH TO
   10-20 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.  ANOTHER DAY OF
   ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY SWLY WINDS WILL ENSURE FAVORABLY DRY 10 H
   FUELS ACROSS RANGE AND GRASSLANDS...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR QUICK
   SPREAD OF ANY FIRES THAT DO DEVELOP.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/22/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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