Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 230743
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0143 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2007
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN AND ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE
   THROUGH FAR W TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY THIS MORNING...INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ONSHORE
   FROM THE ERN PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EAST...ACCOMPANIED
   BY 90KT JET AT 500MB...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER EL PASO TX BY
   24/00Z. AT THE SFC...LEE SIDE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO
   STRONG LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS TODAY. IN ADDITION...SFC DRYLINE
   WILL SHARPEN AND MIX EWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WITH DEWPOINTS
   FALLING INTO THE TEENS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH
   ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN ADDITION TO THE LOW RH VALUES WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING
   FROM THE ERN NM PLAINS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR W
   TX. 
   
   IN THE EAST...MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BUT 500MB
   WINDS OF 60-80 KT WILL PERSIST ACROSS VA/CAROLINA. DRY COLD FRONT
   MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY...AND LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS
   ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN AND ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE THROUGH
   FAR W TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 20-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS/MIN
   RH VALUES BELOW 15-20 PERCENT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/HIGH FIRE DANGER
   
   SFC DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE TODAY...REACHING AN
   AMA/LBB/MAF LINE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. MEANWHILE...STRONG SFC WINDS
   WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE ERN NM PLAINS AS SOON AS MORNING INVERSION
   BREAKS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR
   TO BE MIXED EFFECTIVELY THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SUSTAINED
   WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH. MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 50-60 MPH ARE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH MTN PASSES/FAVORED TERRAIN. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
   VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 50-60 DEGREES ACROSS ERN NM/FAR W
   TX...AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPS WILL
   ALSO BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LATEST OBSERVED FIRE
   DANGER CLASS VALUES ARE HIGH OR VERY HIGH ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA. DUE TO THE WIND...THERE IS A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF WILDFIRE
   SPREAD AMONG FINE FUELS SUCH AS GRASSES SHOULD IGNITIONS OCCUR.
   
   ...NC/SC PIEDMONT...
   ANOTHER DAY OF WINDY DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH NW
   WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH
   TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MAX VALUES WILL STILL APPROACH
   THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
   TEENS...ALLOWING RH VALUES TO FALL OR REMAIN BELOW 25-30 PERCENT.
   FIRE DANGER CLASS VALUE OBSERVATIONS RANGE FROM HIGH TO EXTREME
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT...SO THERE WILL BE INCREASED FIRE
   CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/23/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 230745
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2007
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SE NM/W TX THROUGH NCNTRL AND
   SCNTRL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH...NOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WILL CONTINUE
   DEEPENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS KS/MO AND EVENTUALLY INTO IA BY LATE
   TONIGHT. MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL INCREASE TO 120-130 KT AS IT
   EJECTS FROM W TX INTO CNTRL TX. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
   JUST SOUTHWEST OF KANSAS CITY BY 25/00Z...AND STRONG PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. CRITICAL FIRE
   CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF NM/W TX
   EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN ON FRIDAY. IN
   ADDITION...THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
   CNTRL PORTIONS OF TX AS VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO REGION BEHIND
   A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR SE NM/W TX THROUGH NCNTRL AND
   SCNTRL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS/MIN
   RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT/LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   SUSTAINED WLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ACROSS W TX AND NM...GENERALLY IN
   THE 60S. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE
   DIGITS...SO EVEN WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
   STILL FALL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. FARTHER EAST FROM
   ABI/DRT...DEWPOINTS MAY ALSO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH HIGH TEMPS
   IN THE MID 60S TO 70S. KBDI VALUES FROM THE TX FOREST SERVICE
   INDICATE VALUES ABOVE 300 /OR HIGHER/ FROM HASKELL/THROCKMORTON
   COUNTIES IN TX SWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE. THE MOST EXTREME LONG TERM
   DROUGHT PERSISTS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ABI/SJT...SO THIS
   AREA MAY BE MOST PROBLEMATIC GIVEN EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   
   SQUALL LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OK/NCNTRL TX OVERNIGHT...AND THE
   SRN PORTION OF THIS LINE MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS ABI.
   THE DEGREE OF FIRE THREAT ACROSS NCNTRL TX /ESPECIALLY FROM ABI TO
   DFW/ WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN IS RECEIVED EARLY SATURDAY
   MORNING. EITHER WAY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER
   IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH VERY LOW RH /BELOW 15 PERCENT/
   EXPECTED.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 02/23/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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