Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 240927
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN/CNTRL TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF TX...SERN NM...FAR SERN
   OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS
   WILL INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NEWD TOWARDS
   THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY. THIS INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR AS A
   POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET /APPROACHING 150 MPH AT 500 MB/ CURLS ALONG
   THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM FROM SWRN TX TO THE MID-MS RIVER
   VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A DRY LINE/COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD FROM
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND REACH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SWRN/CNTRL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   A DRY LINE/COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS CNTRL TX
   THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS SURGE...WLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED
   TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION. EVEN STRONGER
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE
   STRENGTHENS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND AS
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING. MODEL
   GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH AN INTENSE SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT AND A WLY LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH...VERY STRONG
   SURFACE WINDS WILL OCCUR. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ARE
   LIKELY...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TOWARDS 60 MPH. RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET
   BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MIN
   VALUES AROUND 6 TO 12 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 60S TO
   MID 70S. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING...AS THE SURFACE
   DECOUPLES AND THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS FARTHER NEWD.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF TX...SERN NM...FAR SERN
   OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
   
   GUSTY/DRY WLYS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
   AND THIS WILL EXPAND/INTENSIFY EWD ACROSS MUCH OF TX THROUGH THIS
   AFTERNOON. ACROSS SERN NM AND PORTIONS OF W TX...VERY STRONG WINDS
   WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 30
   TO 40 MPH. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINALLY WARM
   /MID 50S AND 60S/...RH VALUES SHOULD STILL DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT.
   WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT BY MID-AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY
   COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. FURTHER E...STRONG
   WLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO
   E TX LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION MAY
   DEVELOP ACROSS E TX/SERN OK...OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS/AREAL EXTENT
   ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A POTENTIAL
   CRITICAL THREAT. RH VALUES WILL RAPIDLY FALL AFTER COLD FRONT
   PASSAGE AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15 TO 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS
   THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/24/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 240950
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE
   LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUN. THIS LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
   BECOMES CUT OFF FROM STRONG WLY FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN CONUS.
   THE DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW REGIME WILL AID IN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG THE LEE OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES ON SUN AFTERNOON.
   
   ...SERN NM/PORTIONS OF WRN TX...
   AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS SWD ALONG THE LEE OF THE SRN
   ROCKIES...SWLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED VERY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
   STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON DAY 1...LOCALIZED/BRIEF
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING. VERY LOW RH FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
   COINCIDENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/24/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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