Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 260827
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CST MON FEB 26 2007
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BELT OF FAST WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CONUS FROM
   NRN/CNTRL CA EWD TO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
   LOW QUICKLY E/SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND SERN STATES.
   IN THE WEST...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO
   THE PACIFIC NW. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
   CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES.
   
   ...MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL TX AND SERN NM...
   REGIONAL WIND PROFILERS DEPICT A 50-60 MPH WLY LOW-LEVEL JET
   CENTERED ACROSS NW/N-CNTRL TX EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL
   HELP ADVECT A WARMER/DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF TX TODAY.
   TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
   WIDESPREAD RH VALUES FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT. THE STRENGTH OF THE
   SURFACE WINDS STILL APPEARS MARGINAL AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
   REMAINS CONSISTENT IN RAPIDLY DIMINISHING THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATER
   THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS OK AND WEAKENS.
   SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD COINCIDE FOR A BRIEF
   PERIOD WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH TOWARDS NOON. AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
   PRESENCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD AND BECOMING STATIONARY.
   
   FARTHER WEST...LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN INVOF THE GUADALUPE/SACRAMENTO MTNS. HOWEVER...STRONG
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ADVANCE OF
   NWRN CONUS TROUGH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/26/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 260950
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 AM CST MON FEB 26 2007
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN/SRN NM...PORTIONS OF WRN
   TX...FAR SERN AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EXPAND EWD OVER THE WRN CONUS
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTENSE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS
   THE DESERT SW AND SRN ROCKIES. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
   EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES TUE
   AFTERNOON...INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN CO. A SURFACE
   TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ARC SWWD OF THE CO SURFACE LOW ACROSS CNTRL NM
   INTO SERN AZ.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN/SRN NM...PORTIONS OF WRN
   TX...FAR SERN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH / STRONG WINDS / SHORT-TERM DRYNESS
   
   INCREASING WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL EXACERBATE ALREADY WARM/DRY
   ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF A
   RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN ERN CO AND STRONG WLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO THE E OF THE SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPE
   MTNS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH RH
   VALUES OF 4 TO 10 PERCENT. AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE MTNS
   CAN EXPECT POOR RH RECOVERY AS WINDS REMAIN ROBUST ACROSS THE MTNS
   OVERNIGHT.
   
   FARTHER W OVER SWRN NM/SERN AZ...MODEL GUIDANCE ARE GENERALLY
   CONSISTENT WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
   CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS LIKELY DUE TO THE
   PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
   THAT A RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AID IN MIXING STRONGER
   WINDS ALOFT...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
   COINCIDENT WITH RH OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/26/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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