Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 270819
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 AM CST TUE FEB 27 2007
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN/ERN NM...PORTIONS OF WRN
   TX...EXTREME SERN AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND
   ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD OVER
   THE ERN GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN A
   LEE SURFACE LOW OVER SERN WY/NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. A SWATH OF 80+
   MPH WLY FLOW AT 500 MB WILL SPREAD SEWD FROM CNTRL CA/SRN GREAT
   BASIN ACROSS SRN CA AND THE SRN ROCKIES BY EARLY WED. FURTHER
   E...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY
   ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
   THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH LIGHT NLY FLOW.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN/ERN NM...PORTIONS OF WRN
   TX...EXTREME SERN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / GUSTY WINDS / SHORT-TERM DRYNESS
   
   A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH
   THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
   COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 80S COMMON. MOST
   LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH FROM 8
   TO 15 PERCENT...WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT DOWNWIND OF
   THE W TX MTNS. AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND THE SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL
   INCREASE. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
   AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH FOR A 3 TO 4 HR PERIOD IN THE LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AROUND 30 MPH SHOULD
   OCCUR DOWNWIND OF THE SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPE MTNS. THESE AREAS WILL
   ALSO EXPERIENCE RATHER POOR RH RECOVERY /AOB 25 PERCENT/...AS
   MID-LEVEL FLOW INTENSIFIES FURTHER OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/27/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 270956
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 AM CST TUE FEB 27 2007
   
   VALID 281200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN NM AND PORTIONS
   OF WRN TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN NM...WRN TX...FAR WRN OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE WRN CONUS INTO
   THE GREAT PLAINS BY THU MORNING. INITIAL SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL KS
   WILL TRACK EWD WHILE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ONTO THE
   CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND INDUCE STRONG SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS INVOF
   OK PANHANDLE WED AFTERNOON. INTENSE MID-LEVEL WINDS /90+ MPH AT 500
   MB/ WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE
   SURFACE LOW TRACKS EWD OVER OK WED EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL
   PLUNGE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR SERN NM AND PORTIONS
   OF WRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SHORT-TERM DRYNESS
   
   VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON AS WLY DOWNSLOPE
   INTENSIFIES AMIDST VERY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
   10000 FT LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH SHOULD BE ONGOING WED
   MORNING OVER SWRN NM AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
   SOME UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY TEMPER MORNING HEATING...STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEP
   VERTICAL MIXING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
   TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 35 TO
   45 MPH WILL BE LIKELY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. WITH TEMPERATURES
   IN THE 70S...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 TO 10 PERCENT. A
   COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH
   GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN NM...WRN TX...FAR WRN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SHORT-TERM DRYNESS
   
   A VARIETY OF FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A LARGE
   AREA OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WED
   AFTERNOON. OVER SERN NM/FAR WRN TX...INTENSE DOWNSLOPE WLY FLOW WILL
   RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH.
   HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
   TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S IN EARLY AFTERNOON...RH VALUES SHOULD
   DROP TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT...BEFORE COOLER AIR ARRIVES LATER IN
   THE DAY.
   
   FARTHER E ACROSS THE REST OF WRN TX/FAR WRN OK...A DRYLINE WILL MOVE
   EWD WED MORNING INTO WRN OK/CNTRL TX. BEHIND THIS
   FEATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH RH
   VALUES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DEEPLY
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
   
   ...FAR SERN AZ AND SWRN NM...
   BLUSTERY WLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR COMPARED TO THE PAST
   FEW DAYS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH MAY
   FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR A SHORT TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE
   EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 50S.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/27/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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